طراحی مدل زنجیره فولاد و برآورد میزان مصرف با رویکرد مدل‌سازی عامل‌بنیان

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس.

2 دانشجوی دکتری، دانشگاه تهران.

3 دانشیار، دانشگاه تهران.

4 استاد، دانشگاه تهران.

چکیده

این پژوهش با هدف ارائه مدلی عامل‌بنیان که بتواند با در­نظرگرفتن عوامل کلیدی صنعت فولاد، زنجیره تأمین فولاد را شبیه‌سازی و میزان تولید و مصرف آن را برآورد کند، اجرا شده است. رویکرد پژوهش حاضر آمیخته (کمّی و کیفی) است که در این راستا در بخش نخست پژوهش (کیفی) عوامل تعیین‌کننده مدل برآورد میزان مصرف زنجیره فولاد از طریق مصاحبه با خبرگان از روش تحلیل تم به­دست آمدند، در بخش دوم پژوهش(کمّی) برای درک و بررسی روابط علّی و معلولی عوامل استخراج‌شده از مصاحبه‌ها و روش تحلیل تم از پرسشنامه استفاده شده و سپس مدل روابط به روش دیمتل آزمون شده است. در انتها با استفاده از نرم‌افزار AnyLogic و کدگذاری به زبان جاوا مدل برآورد میزان مصرف زنجیره فولاد با رویکرد مدل‌سازی عامل­بنیان طراحی شد و طبق نظر خبرگان شبیه‌سازی عامل­بنیان، فرایند تبیین مدل نیز مورد­تأیید قرار گرفت. با توجه به نتایج این شبیه‌سازی، مدل ارائه‌شده می‌تواند برآورد مناسبی از آتیه زنجیره تأمین فولاد و میزان مصرف زنجیره را ارائه دهد؛ همچنین ترکیب عامل‌های شناسایی و معرفی‌‌شده در این پژوهش منطبق بر تأثیر عوامل بر تولید، مصرف، واردات و صادرات زنجیره فولاد در مدل ساختاری است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Modeling Steel Supply Chain and Estimating Its Consumption through ABM Methodology

نویسندگان [English]

  • Adel Azar 1
  • Mahdi Mashayekhi 2
  • Mojataba Amiri 3
  • Hossein Safari 4
1 Professor, Tarbiat Modares University.
2 Ph.D Candidate, University of Tehran.
3 Associate Professor, University of Tehran.
4 Professor, University of Tehran.
چکیده [English]

The purpose of this study was to develop an agent based model that could simulate the steel supply chain and estimate its production and consumption, taking into account the key factors of the steel industry. The approach of the present study is mixed (quantitative and qualitative). In the first part of the research (qualitative), the agents of the steel chain consumption model were obtained through interviews with experts using thematic analysis method. In the second part of the research (quantitative), a questionnaire was used to survey the causal relationships of the factors extracted from the interviews and the thematic analysis method, and then the relationship model was tested by the DEMATEL method. Finally, by using AnyLogic software and coding in Java language, a model of steel supply chain and its consumption was designed throughan agent-based  approach, and according to the opinion of steel industry experts, the model explanation process was also approved. The combination of agents identified in this study is consistent with the influence of factors on production, consumption, import and export of the steel chain in the proposed structural model.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Supply Chain Management
  • Steel Chain Consumption
  • Thematic Analysis Method
  • DEMATEL Method
  • Agent Based Modeling

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