طراحی مدل برنامه‌ریزی احتمالی چندهدفه ظرفیت بهینه انرژی برق با رویکرد تقریب میانگین نمونه و روش کوآنتایل

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار، دانشگاه تهران.

2 استاد، دانشگاه تهران.

3 دانشجوی دکتری، پردیس بین‌المللی کیش دانشگاه تهران.

چکیده

در این مقاله مدل برنامه­ریزی خطی احتمالی با هدف برنامه­ریزی ظرفیت انرژی برق و با توجه به محدودیت­های آن در بازه زمانی مورد ‌مطالعه طراحی شده است. در این الگو برای دستیابی به ظرفیت، مکان و زمان­بندی بهینه­ تجهیزات شبکه انرژی برق و همچنین مدیریت مصرف انرژی و افزایش رضایت مشترکین تلاش شده است. افق زمانی 10 ساله و متغیرهای غیرقطعی، تقاضای سالانه و میزان خاموشی مجاز تعیین شده است. نوآوری­ پژوهش توجه به روش­های مختلف رویارویی با تقاضا با در‌نظر‌گرفتن مدیریت مصرف و خاموشی در کنار آن است. مدل حاضر از نظر تمرکز بر عوامل اقتصادی، محیطی و اجتماعی دارای جامعیت است. از نتایج پژوهش، پیش­بینی ظرفیت ایجاد تجهیزات انرژی و آماده­سازی زیرساخت­های آن است. بدین منظور مدل احتمالی خطی ای طراحی گردید؛ سپس از روش تقریب میانگین نمونه و روش کوآنتایل ظرفیت­های بهینه محاسبه و درنهایت توسط سناریوهایی ظرفیت مراکز بار منطقه در زمان مناسب تعیین شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

A Multi- Objective Stochastic Programming Model for Power Capacity Planning with Sample Average Approximation Approach and Quantile Method

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ezatollah Asgharizade 1
  • Ali Mohaghar 2
  • Naeimeh Taghavi 3
1 Associate Professor, Tehran of University.
2 Professor, University of Tehran.
3 PHD Student, University of Tehran, Kish International Campus.
چکیده [English]

This paper, develop a linear stochastic programming model. The objective of model is planning for power energy capacity for facing with demand. In this model, capacity decisions are made to select the time, the location and the type of equipment for power transmission and generation expansion and also try to demand side management. The purpose of model is making decision for construction and expansion of region’s capacity by an incorporated pattern. In this study, planning horizon is 10 years. Demand and outage are considered as an uncertain factor. Attention to different way of facing with demand, demand side management and outage together are the innovations of this research. Designed model centralize in economic, environmental and sociable factors. The results are anticipation of needed capacity, planning for making power plant, providing transmission base and development of demand side management in order to increase social satisfaction. However the remaining sections described the review of capacity planning and assigned the affecting factors on it. Then formulated a linear multi-objective stochastic optimization model and optimal solutions are founded base on sample average approximation.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Capacity Planning
  • Multi-Objective Stochastic Model
  • Sample Average Approximation Method
  • Quantile method

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