آینده پژوهی در تعیین راهبردهای کیفیت خدمات گمرک و لجستیک به مشتریان با رویکرد سناریونگاری

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 کارشناسی ارشد، دانشگاه هرمزگان.

2 استادیار، دانشگاه هرمزگان.

چکیده

هدف از پژوهش حاضر، آینده­پژوهی در کیفیت خدمات گمرک با مدل سرکوال (1988) و پیشنهاد راهبرد­های مناسب برای مواجه با هر سناریو است. این پژوهش با رویکرد سناریونگاری، در «گمرک شهید رجایی» انجام شده است. پژوهش حاضر از نظر هدف کاربردی و از حیث روش، پیمایشی است که در سطح اکتشافی صورت گرفت. در مرحله اول و تعیین تأثیرات متوازن متقابل، از هیئت شانزده‌نفره­ای از متخصصان، برای پر‌کردن پرسشنامه استفاده شد؛ سپس با نرم‌افزار سناریو ویزارد با روش آنالیز متوازن تأثیرات متقابل 79­ سناریو به‌دست آمد که از میان هشت سناریو قابل‌قبول (قوی)؛ سه سناریو، (خوش‌بینانه، محتمل و بدبینانه) انتخاب شد. در مرحله دوم نیز به­صورت هدفمند هیئت پنج‌نفره­ای از خبرگان گمرک که در مرحله قبل با روش نمونه­گیری قضاوتی انتخاب شده بودند، برای تدوین اقدامات و سیاست­های لازم در گروه متمرکز، انتخاب شدند؛ درنهایت گروه متمرکز خبرگان، 12 راهبرد برای سناریو خوش­بینانه، 6 راهبرد برای سناریو محتمل و 8 راهبرد نیز برای سناریو بدبینانه پیشنهاد کردند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Strategie's of Customs and Logistics to Clients through Scenario Planning Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Saeed Rayat Pishe 1
  • Ali Tizroo 2
1 MSc, University of Hormozgan.
2 Assistant Professor, University of Hormozgan.
چکیده [English]

The aim of this research is the future study of service quality with SERVQUAL model (1988), which follows with suggesting appropriate strategies to deal with each scenario. This research deals with scenario approach, and a case study was conducted in Shahid Rajaee Customs. This research is clarified as practical, based on its aim and at an exploratory level. In the first phase of this study, to determine the cross-impact balance analysis, sixteen-member of experts were requested to complete the questionnaire. Finally, with Scenario Wizard Software, 79 scenarios identified, out of which eight acceptable scenarios (strong); and three scenarios (optimistic, likely and pessimistic scenarios) were selected. In the second stage five-members of experts which were selected by judgment sampling previously, were selected for formulation measures and policies in the focus groups also (applying target sampling). Finally, 12 strategies for optimistic scenarios, 6 strategies for likely scenarios and 8 scenarios for pessimistic scenarios were suggested by focus group of experts.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Futures Study
  • Scenario Planning
  • Service Quality
  • SERVQUAL Model
  • Focus Group
1. Azar, A., Mohammadlo, m., Moghbal Ba Arz, A., & Ahmady, P. (2012). Designing a Framework to measure the quality of service in the supply chain. Journal of Industrial Management Perspective, 6(2), 9-24. (In Persian)
2. Ahmady, keumars., soltanpanah, hersh., & nozad, navid. (2013). the future study approach to housing conditions of Urmia city by applications of Scenario-planning. Second National Conference on futures study. Tehran. (In Persian)
3. Aldlaigan, A. H., & Buttle, F. A. (2002). SYSTRA-SQ: a new measure of bank service quality. International Journal of Service Industry Management, 13(4), 362-381.
4. Amer, M., Daim, T. U., & Jetter, A. (2013). A review of scenario planning. Futures, 46, 23-40.
5. Assakul, pe. (2005). Methods of futures studies. Translations by Saeid Khaza'i. Tehran: Institute of Education and Defense Industry Research. Central futures study of defense science and technology. (In Persian)
6. Avkiran, N. K. (1994). Developing an instrument to measure customer service quality in branch banking. International journal of bank marketing, 12(6), 10-18.
7. Axelrod M. (1975). 10 essentials for good qualitative research. Market News, 8(17), 10–1.
8. Bent, R. W., & Van Hentenryck, P. (2004). Scenario-based planning for partially dynamic vehicle routing with stochastic customers. Operations Research, 52(6), 977-987.
9. Bishop, P., Hines, A., & Collins, T. (2007). The current state of scenario development: an overview of techniques. Foresight, 9(1), 5-25.
10. Bottani, E., & Rizzi, A. (2006). A fuzzy TOPSIS methodology to support outsourcing of logistics services. Supply Chain Management: An International Journal, 11(4), 294-308.
11. Bradfield, R., Wright, G., Burt, G., Cairns, G., & Van Der Heijden, K. (2005). The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning. Futures, 37(8), 795-812.
12. Brady, M. K., & Cronin Jr, J. J. (2001). Some new thoughts on conceptualizing perceived service quality: a hierarchical approach. Journal of marketing, 65(3), 34-49.
13. Buttle, F. (1996). Relationship marketing: theory and practice (book): SAGE.
14. CfWI (2012). A strategic review of the future healthcare workforce – Informing medical and dental student intakes. London: Centre for Workforce Intelligence. Available at: http://www.cfwi.org.uk/publications/a-strategic-review-of-the-future-healthcare-workforce-informing-medical-and-dental-student-intakes-1.
15. CfWI (2013). A strategic review of the future dentistry workforce – Informing dental student intakes. London: Centre for Workforce Intelligence. Available at: http://www.cfwi.org.uk/publications/a-strategic-review-of-the-future-dentistry-workforce-informing-dental-student-intakes.
16. Coates, J. F. (2000). Scenario planning. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 65(1), 115-123.
17. Crosby, P. B. (1984). Quality without tears: The act of hassle-free management: New York: McGraw-HillR, New American Library.
18. Dortland, M., Voordijk, H., Dewulf, G. (2012). Towards a decision support tool for real estate management in the health sector using real options and scenario planning. Journal of Corporate Real Estate, 14(3), 140-156.
19. Enzer, S. (1980). INTERAX—an interactive model for studying future business environments: Part I. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 17(2), 141-159.
20. Farsijani, H., & Zandy, O. (2010). Define and measure, strategic models of service quality. Journal of Strategic management studies, 1(4), 69-94. (In Persian)
21. Franceschini, F., & Rafele, C. (2000). Quality evaluation in logistic services. International Journal of Agile Management Systems, 2(1), 49-54.
22. Foroughi abari, A. & Yarmohammadian, M. & Esteki, M. (2011). Assessment of quality of education a non-governmental university via servqual model. Social and Behavioral Sciences, 15: 2299-2304.
23. Garvin D. (1987), Competing on the Eight Dimensions of Quality. Harvard Business Review, 65(5), 108 – 125.
24. Ghorbane, V., Baede, A., & Mofradnea, A. (1390). the role of the Customs Information System in organizational learning, technological distinctive competencies and performance of Customs. Journal Management research in Iran. 15(4), 175-191. (In Persian).
25. Godet, M. (2000). The art of scenarios and strategic planning: tools and pitfalls. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 65(1), 3-22.
26. Goldman AE. (1962). The group depth interview. J Market, 26(3), 61–8.
27. Gökan May, Bojan Stahl., & Marco Taisch. (2015). Energy management in manufacturing: Toward eco-factories of the future – A focus group study. Applied Energy, 164(7), 628–638.
28. Gordon, T. J. (1994). Trend impact analysis. Washington, DC: United Nations University. (Part of Glenn 1994a).
29. GRONROSS, C. (2000) Service management and marketing: A customer relationship management Approach. Chichester, John Wiley.
30. Halcomb EJ, Gholizadeh L, DiGiacomo M, Phillips J, Davidson PM. (2007). Literature review: consideration in undertaking focus group research with culturally and linguistically diverse group. J Clin Nurs, 16(6), 1000-1011.
31. Hamidyzada, mohamadreza. (2011). Theory of time and futures based on understanding theory. Journal of Strategic management studies.2(6), 81-102. (In Persian)
32. Harvey, J. (1998). Service quality: a tutorial. Journal of Operations Management, 16(5), 583-597.
33. Huss, W. R. (1988). A move toward scenario analysis. International Journal of Forecasting, 4(3), 377-388.
34. Ilyas, A., Nasir, H., Hussain, F., Malik, M., Munir, S., & Sarwar, Z. (2013). Evaluating business schools service quality using SERVQUAL model. J Basic Appl Sci Res, 3(5), 710-716.
35. Jetter, A. J. (2003). Educating the guess: strategies, concepts and tools for the fuzzy front end of product development. Paper presented at the Management of Engineering and Technology, 2003. PICMET'03. Technology Management for Reshaping the World. Portland International Conference on.
36. Kahn, H., & Wiener, A. J. (1967). Year 2000; a framework for speculation on the next thirty-three years.
37. Kang, G.-D., Jame, J., & Alexandris, K. (2002). Measurement of internal service quality: application of the SERVQUAL battery to internal service quality. Managing Service Quality: An International Journal, 12(5), 278-291.
38. Karatepe, O. M., Yavas, U., & Babakus, E. (2005). Measuring service quality of banks: scale development and validation. Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, 12(5), 373-383.
39. Katherine N. Lemon, Tiffany Barnett White, Russell S. Winer (2002) Dynamic Customer Relationship Management: Incorporating Future Considerations into the Service Retention Decision. Journal of Marketing, 66(1), 1-14.
40. Lee, M. C., & Hwan, S. (2005). Relationships among service quality, customer satisfaction and profitability in the Taiwanese banking industry. International Journal of Management, 22(4), 635-646.
41. Lehtinen, U., & Lehtinen, J. R. (1982). Service quality: a study of quality dimensions: Service Management Institute.
42. Linneman, R. E., & Klein, H. E. (1983). The use of multiple scenarios by US industrial companies: a comparison study, 1977–1981. Long Range Planning, 16(6), 94-101.
43. Lloyd, E. A., & Schweizer, V. J. (2014). Objectivity and a comparison of methodological scenario approaches for climate change research. Synthese, 191(10), 2049-2088.
44. Lovelock, c & Wright, L. (2000). Principles of service marketing and management. Prentice Hill, International.
45. Martino, J. P. (2003). A review of selected recent advances in technological forecasting. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 70(8), 719-733.
46. Mentzer, J. T., Flint, D. J., & Hult, G. T. M. (2001). Logistics service quality as a segment-customized process. Journal of marketing, 65(4), 82-104.
47. Mer fakhrodeni, sed heddar., & pero, saeid., (2012). Providing integrated methodology by using the model of Kano and Quality Function Deployment In order to improve the quality of banking services based on rough set approach. Journal of Industrial Management Perspective. 8(4). 61-89. (In Persian)
48. Mogheme, sedmohammad., & Hafezy, roholla. (2009). Performance management and its relationship with service quality in branches of melli bank Esfahan City. Journal of Business Management.1 (3), 147-164. (In Persian)
49. Moahmody, behzad. (2010). Statistics and its role in policy-making and decision-making from the perspective of scenario studies. Economic Research Department (Center for Strategic Research), Strategic Research Report No: 123. (In Persian)
50. Naghdebak, B., & keramati, M.A. (2012). Future study scenarios of downstream Project of oil, gas and petrochemical industries in Iran. Second National Conference on futures study. Tehran. (In Persian)
51. Parasuraman, A., Zeithaml, V. A., & Berry, L. L. (1985). A conceptual model of service quality and its implications for future research. The Journal of Marketing, 41-50.
52. Parasuraman, A., Zeithaml, V. A., & Berry, L. L. (1988). Servqual. Journal of retailing, 64(1), 12-40.
53. Piirainen, K., Kortelainen, S., Elfvengren, K., & Tuominen, M. (2010). A scenario approach for assessing new business concepts. Management Research Review, 33(6), 635-655.
54. Ross, I., & Juwaheer, A. (2003). Service quality and store performance: some evidence from Greece. Managing Service Quality, 15(1), 24-50.
55. Salehnea, monera., & Zareymahmdabady, Zahra. (2010). Survey on banking service Quality in Iran. Bank and economy. 14(106), 14-23. (In Persian)
56. Schweizer, V. J., & Kriegler, E. (2012). Improving environmental change research with systematic techniques for qualitative scenarios. Environmental Research Letters, 7(4), 044011.
57. Schweizer, V. J., & O’Neill, B. C. (2014). Systematic construction of global socioeconomic pathways using internally consistent element combinations. Climatic Change, 122(3), 431-445.
58. Sevaguru, N., & Safa, M. S. (2009). Scenario planning approach to strategic management of small travel business in Malaysia. International Journal of Business and Management Science, 2(1), 61-74.
59. So, S.-h., Kim, J., Cheong, K., & Cho, G. (2006). Evaluating the service quality of third-party logistics service providers using the analytic hierarchy process. Journal of Information Systems and Technology Management, 3(3), 261-270.
60. Taskin, E., & Durmaz, Y. (2010). The role of service quality of the logistic activities in creating customer value and a research on the institutional customers of Yurtici cargo. European journal of economics, finance and administrative sciences, 2(23), 170-178.
61. Taylor DW, Berry PC, Block CH. (1958) does group participation when using brainstorming facilitate or inhibit creative thinking? Adm Sci, 3(1), 23–47.
62. Torghe, jafar. (2012). Proposed model for future scenario studies for the development of the university. The first National Conference on futures study. Tehran. (In Persian)
63. Turoff, M. (1972). An alternative approach to cross impact analysis. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 3, 309-339.
64. Van der Heijden, K. (1996). Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation. Chichester: Wiley.
65. Vargo, S. L., & Lusch, R. F. (2004). The four service marketing myths remnants of a goods-based, manufacturing model. Journal of service research, 6(4), 324-335.
66. Varum, C. A., & Melo, C. (2010). Directions in scenario planning literature–A review of the past decades. Futures, 42(4), 355-369.
67. Vecchiato, R., & Roveda, C. (2010). Strategic foresight in corporate organizations: Handling the effect and response uncertainty of technology and social drivers of change. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 77(9), 1527-1539.
68. Weimer-Jehle, W. (2013) ScenarioWizard 4.1. Stuttgart Research Centre for Interdisciplinary Risk and Innovation Studies, University of Stuttgart. Available at: http://www.crossimpact.De/Ressourcen/ScenarioWizardManual_ en.pdf
69. Weimer-Jehle, W. (2006). Cross-impact balances: A system-theoretical approach to cross-impact analysis. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, (73), 334-361.
70. Wilkinson, A. and Kupers, R. (2014) the essence of scenarios: learning from the Shell experience. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.
71. Wright, G., Bradfield, R. & Cairns, G. (2013). Does the intuitive logics method – and its recent enhancements – produce “effective” scenarios? Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 80(4), 631-642.
72. Yusofe, omalbanin., Kalevandabdolahi, amin. (2013). Iran's automotive industry prospect over the global challenges (Futures study with scenario making approach). Second National Conference on futures study. Tehran. (In Persian)
73. Zare Mirak Abade, A., Niazi, E., & Salehi, S. (2011). Future study of key technologies in ICT industries of Iran with an emphasis on identifying business models. Journal of Industrial Management Perspective, 4, 107-130. (In Persian)