مدل علّی - معلولی مسئله حوادث رانندگی در ایران: رویکرد پویایی‌شناسی سیستم

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی.

2 استادیار، دانشگاه علوم پزشکی بوشهر.

3 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد، دانشگاه شریف.

4 دانشجوی کارشناسی، دانشگاه شریف.

5 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی.

چکیده

مسئله تصادفات رانندگی در ایران یک معضل جدی است و ایران جزو کشورهایی است که آمار بالایی از مرگ ناشی از تصادفات رانندگی را به خود اختصاص می‌دهد. با نگاه پویا به مسئله یادشده در ایران و بررسی متغیرهای مهمی مثل تعداد تلفات سالیانه ناشی از تصادفات می‌توان بیشتر به اهمیت موضوع پی برد. به‌طورکلی مسئله تصادفات رانندگی ابعاد گوناگونی دارد و یک موضوع چندبُعدی یا چندوجهی و دارای پیچیدگی‌های خاص خود است. در این پژوهش با استفاده از رویکرد پویایی‌های سیستم، ابتدا پس از بیان مسئله در طول زمان، با توجه به پیشینه و مصاحبه‌های صورت‌گرفته چهار دسته عامل اصلی به‌عنوان عوامل یا متغیرهای مهم و اثرگذار لحاظ شده و با توجه به عوامل شکل‌دهنده‌ هر یک از متغیرها، روابط علّی - معلولی استخراج می‌شود. در این راستا سیستم موردبررسی به چندین زیرسیستم یا بخش اصلی تقسیم شده و برای هر بخش یا زیر بخش نمودار علّی- معلولی ارائه و در پایان سیاست‌های راهبردی بهبود دهنده رفتار متغیرهای اصلی سیستم، مانند فعال‌سازی یا راه‌اندازی سازمان متولی با نام سازمان راهبر پیشنهاد می‌شود.  

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Causal Loop Model for Problem of Traffic Accident: The System Dynamics Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Masood Rabieh 1
  • Hedayat Salari 2
  • Mohammad Mehdi Karami 3
  • Mostafa Ziyaei 4
  • Azizolah Yasoubi 5
1 Assistant Professor, Shahid Beheshti University.
2 Assistant Professor, School of Medicine, Bushehr University of Medical.
3 M. Sc. Student, Sharif University of Technology.
4 B. Sc. Student, Sharif University of Technology.
5 M.A. Student, Shahid Beheshti University.
چکیده [English]

Due to the high rate of Traffic accident and death toll in Iran, recently the case has altered into a major national hitch.  Through System Dynamics point of view and examining significant factors like the yearly death toll of vehicle accidents in Iran, the importance of the case gets more vivid. Generally the case beholds various dimensions (Multi Dimensional Case) and special complexities. The study applies “System Dynamics” approach. Having defined the Dynamic problem, considering the “literature review”, and exploring the interviews four groups of major factors were scrutinized as effective and significant. Concentrating on the four main factors, the “Casual Loop Model” was developed. The system was divided to several subsystems (several main sections). Afterward “Casual Loop diagram” was presented for each subsystem. Finally the three proposed strategic policies were introduced to enhance the behavior of main system variables such as set-up “In-charge organization” or leading organization.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Dynamic Problem
  • Casual Loop Diagram
  • System Dynamics
  • Strategic Policies

مراجع

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