طراحی مدل پویای توسعه محصول جدید با تأکید بر تئوری انتشار باس

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار، واحد رشت، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، رشت.

2 استادیار، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران.

3 کارشناس ارشد، واحد رشت، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، رشت.

چکیده

توجه به عوامل کلیدی در توسعه موفقیت ­آمیز محصولات جدید، یکی از عوامل اصلی جلب مشتریان و کسب مزیت رقابتی به ­شمار می ­رود. پژوهش حاضر با هدف بررسی اثر سیاست­ گذاری بر عوامل کلیدی توسعه محصولات جدید بر افزایش نرخ جذب مشتریان انجام شده است. با توجه به تغییر پارامترها در طول زمان و اهمیت انتشار نوآوری در توسعه محصولات جدید، در این پژوهش از رویکرد پویایی‌شناسی سیستم و تئوری انتشار باس برای مدل‌سازی مسئله استفاده شده است. در این راستا، ابتدا با مطالعات کتابخانه ­ای و مصاحبه با متخصصان، عوامل کلیدی توسعه موفقیت ­آمیز محصولات جدید شناسایی شدند. سپس با تعیین روابط متغیرهای پژوهش و استخراج فرضیه­ های پویا، نمودارهای علت ـ معلول و موجودی ـ جریان شکل گرفتند. نهایتاً، پس از تعریف معادلات دینامیکی و شبیه­ سازی مدل در نرم‌افزار ونیسم، اعتبار مدل مورد‌تأیید قرار گرفت. نتایج بررسی سیاست­ های چهار­گانه پایه، تبلیغات، تحقیق و توسعه و تبلیغات و تحقیق و توسعه متوازن نشان داد که افزایش هم‌زمان بودجه تبلیغات و تحقیق ‌و توسعه می ­تواند تأثیر بیشتری بر جذب مشتریان و موفقیت توسعه محصول جدید داشته باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Designing a Dynamic Model for New Product Development by Emphasizing on Bass Diffusion Theory

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mahdi Homayounfar 1
  • Bijan Nahavandi 2
  • Parisa G olbazzadeh 3
1 Assistant Professor, Rasht Branch, Islamic Azad University, Rasht.
2 Assistant Professor, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran.
3 M.A, Rasht Branch, Islamic Azad University, Rasht.
چکیده [English]

Consideration of critical factors in successful development of new products is one of the main factors in customers’ attraction and achieving competitive advantage. This study aims to investigate the effect of making policies around key factors of new products development (NDP) on increase of customers’ attraction rate. Considering dynamics of model’s parameters over the time and importance of innovation diffusion in NDP, in this research, Bass diffusion theory and system dynamics approach are used for modelling the problem. In this regard, first by reviewing the literature and interviewing with the experts, critical factors for successful development of new products were identified. Then, by determination of the relationships among research variables and exploration of dynamic hypotheses, cause & effect and stock & flow diagrams were developed. Finally, after definition of dynamo equations and simulation of the model in Vensim software, model’s validity was verified. The results from implementing four policies, namely: basic, advertisement, R&D and balanced advertisement and R&D, indicated that simultaneous increase in R&D and advertisement budget, can be more effective in customers’ attraction and success of NDP.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • System Dynamics
  • New Product Development (NPD)
  • Bass Diffusion Theory

مراجع

1. Adler, P. S., Mandelbaum, A., Nguyen, V., & Schwerer, E. (1995). From Project to Process Management: An Empirically Based Framework for Analyzing Product Development Time. Management Science, 41, 458-484.
2. Ares, G., & Deliza, D. (2010). Studying the influence of package shape and colour on consumer expectations of milk desserts using word association and conjoint analysis. Food Quality and Preference, 21(8), 930-937.
3. Bambauer-Sachse, S., & Grewal, D. (2011). Temporal reframing of prices: when is it beneficial? Journal of Retailing, 87(2), 156-165.
4. Bass, F. M. (1979). A New Product Growth for Model Customer Durablesm. Management Science, 15(5), 215-227.
5. Benedetto, C. A. D. (1999). Identifying the key success factors in new product launch. Journal of Product Innovation Management, 16(6), 530-544.
6. Benvenutti, L. M. M., Ribeiro, A. B., & Mauricio, U. M. (2017). Long term diffusion dynamics of alternative fuel vehicles in Brazil. Journal of Cleaner Production, 164, 1571-1585.
7. Bertotti, M. L., Brunner, J., & Modanese, G. (2016). The Bass diffusion model on networks with correlations and inhomogeneous advertising. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 90, 55-63.
8. Brown, S. L., & Eisenhardt, K. M. (1995). Product development: Past research, present findings and future directions. Academy of Management Review, 20, 342-378.
9. Chan, S. L., & Ip, W. H. (2011). A dynamic decision support system to predict the value of customer for new product development. Decision Support Systems, 52, 178-188.
10. Clark, K. B., & Fujimoto, T. (1991). Product Development Performance: Strategy, Organization and Management in the world Auto Industry, Harvard Business School Press, Cambridge.
11. Clark, K. B., & Wheelwright, S. C. (1993). Revolutionizing product development. New York: The Free Press.
12. Cooper, R. G. (1990). Stage-gate systems: A new tool for managing new products. Business Horizons, 33(3), 44-54.
13. Cooper, R. G., & Kleinschmidt, E. J. (2004). Winning Businesses in Product Development the Critical Success Factors. Research Technology Management, 12(5), 374-391.
14. Coyle, G. (1998). The practice of system dynamics: milestones, lessons and ideas from 30 years experience. System dynamics review, 14, 343-365.
15. Dehghan Dehnavi, H., Neyibzadeh, S. Zarrine Abadi, E. (2011). Investigating the Effective Factors on New Product Development (NPD) in the Textile Industry. Third National Conference on Textile and Clothing. Yazd Islamic Azad University, Yazd. (In Persian).
16. Deng, X., & Srinivasan, R. (2013) When Do Transparent Packages Increase (or Decrease) Food Consumption? Journal of Marketing, 77(4), 104-117.
17. Dougherty, D., & Hardy, C. (1996). Sustained product innovation in large, mature Organizations: overcoming innovation-to-organization problems. Academy of Management Journal, 39(5), 120-153.
18. Elsawah, S., Pierce, S. A., Hamilton, S. H., Van Delden, H., Haase, D., Elmahdi, A., & Jakeman, A. J. (2017). An overview of the system dynamics process for integrated modelling of socio-ecological systems: Lessons on good modelling practice from five case studies. Environmental Modelling & Software, 93, 127-145.
19. Forrester, J. W. (1998). Designing the future. At Universidad de Seville, Seville, Spain. December, 15, 1998.
20. Griffin, A., & Page, A. L. (1996). PDMA s success measurement project: Recommended measures by project and strategy type. Product Innovation Management, 13(6), 478-496.
21. Grunert, K. G., & Van Trijp, H. C. M. (2014). Consumer-Oriented New Product Development. Encyclopedia of Agriculture and Food Systems, 375–386.
22. Hamidizadeh, M.R., & Noorian, Z.A. (2013). Explaining and Evaluating the Effectiveness of Television Advertising on Customer Attraction: Case Study of Saderat Bank of Iran. Quarterly Journal of Innovation and Enterpreneurship, 1(3), 33-46 (In Persian).
23. Henard, D. H., & Szymanski, D. M. (2001). Why some new products are more successful than others. Journal of Marketing Research, 38(3), 362-375.
24. Hu, H.,H., Lin, J., Qian, Y., Sun, J. (2018). Strategies for new product diffusion: Whom and how to target? Journal of Business Research, 83, 111-119.
25. Inderrieden, E. J., Laczniak, J. R., & Pecotich, A. (1990). Determinants of R&D expenditures and expectations. The Journal of High Technology Management Research, 1(2),207-221.
26. Júnior, A. S. C., & Yu, A. S. O. (2016). Optimal economic result and risk of parallel development of concept options in dynamic markets. Revista de Administraçãoe Inovação, 13, 190-198.
27. Kandemir, R. C., & Rosanna, G. (2006). An exploration of organizational factors in new product development success. The Journal of Business & Industrial Marketing, 21(5),300-310.
28. Kopainsky, B. (2005). A system dynamics analysis of socio-economic development in lagging Swiss regions. Berichte aus der Volkswirtschaft. Aachen: Shaker-Verlag.
29. Kuester, S., Homburg, C., & Hildesheim, A. (2016). The catbird seat of the sales force: How sales force integration leads to new product success. International Journal of Research in Marketing, (In press).
30. Laniak, G. F., Olchin, G., Goodall, J., Voinov, A., Hill, M., Glynn, P., Whelan, G., Geller, G., Quinn, N., Blind, M., Peckham, S., Reaney, S., Gaber, N., Kennedy, R., & Hughes, A. (2013). Integrated environmental modeling: a vision and roadmap for the future. Environmental Modeling & Software, 39, 3-23.
31. Lee, H., Kim, S. G., Park, H. W., & Kang, P. (2014). Pre-launch new product demand forecasting using the Bass model: A statistical and machine learning-based approach. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 86, 49-64.
32. Manian, A., Asgharzadeh, E., Dehghan Banadaki, M. (2011). Role of Knowledge Management (KM) in the New Product Development (NPD) performance of Software SMEsA survey on Software SMEs in the Yazd Province. Journal of Information Technology Management, 3 (8), 133-150 (In Persian).
33. Massiani, J., & Gohs, A. (2015). The choice of Bass model coefficients to forecast diffusion for innovative products: An empirical investigation for new automotive technologies. Research in Transportation Economics, 50, 17-28.
34. Mazzola, E., Bruccoleri, M., & Perrone, G. (2015). Supply chain of innovation and new product development. Journal of Purchasing & Supply Management, 21, 273-284.
35. Mirtalaie, M. S., Khadeer Hussain, O., Chang, E., & Khadeer Hussain, F. (2017). A decision support framework for identifying novel ideas in new product development from cross-domain analysis.Information Systems, 69,59–80.
36. Mohagar, A., Hashemi, S.H., & Talaei, H. (2017). Dynamic Modeling of a New Product Supply Chain Using Dynamism Approach. Journal of industrial management perspective, 6(4), 9-36 (In Persion).
37. Mu, J., Peng, G., & Tan, Y. (2007). Newproduct development in Chinese SMEs: Key success factors from a managerial perspective. International Journal of Emerging Markets, 2(2), 123-143.
38. Murphy, J. A., Burton, J., Gleaves, R., & Kithoff, J. (2005). Converting Customer Value: From Retention to Profit, USA, Wiley.
39. Naeiji, M.J. (2015). Designing the Process Model of Software Product Development Using Interpretive Structural Modeling Approach (ISM). Journal of industrial management perspective, 5(1): 99-118 (In Persion).
40. Naeiji, M. J., Panahifar, F., & Tadari, Y. (2017). The Effect of Stakeholder Participation in the Process of New Product Development on Organizational Performance. Industrial Management Perspective, 27, 27-46 (In Persion).
41. Nematizadeh, S., & Seraji, M.J. (2010). The attractiveness of the product and its impact on customer behavior. Business Management, 2(6), 152-174 (In Persian).
42. OECD, The Measurement of Scientific and Technological Activities: Guidelines for Collecting and Interpreting Innovation Data: Oslo Manual, 158, third ed., 2005 https://stats.oecd.org/glossary/detail.asp?ID = 6869.
43. Oliva, R. (2003). Model calibration as a testing strategy for system dynamics models. European Journal of Operational Research, 151, 552-568.
44. Park, S. J., & Choi, S. (2016). Valuation of adopters based on the Bass model for a new product. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 108, 63-69.
45. Poolton, J., & Barclay, I. (1998). New product development from past research to future applications. Industrial Marketing Management, 27(3), 197-212.
46. Putsis, W. P. (1998). Parameter Variation and New Product Diffusion. Journal of Forecasting, 17, 231-257.
47. Rocca, A. L., Moscatelli, P., Perna, A., & Snehota, I. (2016). Customer involvement in new product development in B2B: The role of sales. Industrial Marketing Management, 58, 45-57.
48. Rockart, J. (1979). Chief executive define their own data needs. Harvard Business Review, 57(2) 81-93.
49. Rodríguez-Ulloa, R., & Paucar-Caceres, A. (2004). Soft System Dynamics Methodology (SSDM): A Combination of Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) and System Dynamics (SD). Proceedings of the 22nd International Systems Dynamics Conference, 25–29, Oxford, England.
50. Sale, R. S., Mesak, H. I., & Inman, R. A. (2017). A dynamic marketing-operations interface model of new product updates. European Journal of Operational Research, 257, 233-242.
51. Schnurr, B., Brunner-Sperdin, A., & Stokburger-Sauer, N. E. (2017). The effect of context attractiveness on product attractiveness and product quality: the moderating role of product familiarity. Marketing Letters, 28(2), 241-253.
52. Schrepp, M., Held, T., & Laugwitz, B. (2006). The influence of hedonic quality on the attractiveness of user interfaces of business management software. Interacting with Computers, 18(5), 1055-1069.
53. Seyedhosseini, S. M., AliAhmadi, A., & Fathian, M. (2010). Agile New product Dvevlopment Model Using path Analysis Method for Iranian Auto Industries. International Journal of Idustrial Engineering and Production Management, 2010, 20(4), 77-89 (In Persian).
54. Shiraj, M. (2017). Effects of price reframing tactics on consumer perceptions. Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, 34, 82-87.
55. Soltani Fasghandis, G., Pouya, A., Kazemi M., & Naji Azimi, Z. Predicting the success of new product development using a combination of factor analysis and artificial neural network. Productivity Management, 37, 127-155. (In Persian).
56. Sterman, J. (2000). Business Dynamics. Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. McGraw-Hill.
57. Sun, H., & Wing, W. C. (2005). Critical success factors for new product development in the Hong Kong toy industry. Technovation, 25, 293-303.
58. Surjaputra, R., & Williem, W. (2011). The effect of product attractiveness, word of mouth and product quality in elevating the impulsive buying behavior of Garuda Peanut in Surabaya. Business Innovation and Technology Management (APBITM), 2011 IEEE International Summer Conference of Asia Pacific.
59. Talebi, K., Salimi Torkmani, M., & Zare, H. Identification and Prioritization of the Fundamentals of Success in the Development of New Product in Small and Medium Businesses Based in Tehran's Science and Technology Parks. Modern Economics and Trade, 5, 83-100 (In Persian).
60. Ulrich, K. T., & Eppinger, S. D. (2000). Product design and development. McGraw-Hill.
61. Veryzer, R. W., & Hutchinson, J. W. (1998). The influence of unity and prototypically on aesthetic responses to new product designs. Journal of Consumer Research, 24(4), 374-394.
62. Wang, W., Wang, Y., Mo, D., & Tseng, M. M. (2017). Managing component reuse in remanufacturing under product diffusion dynamics. International Journal of Production Economics, 183, 551-560.
63. Weber, J. A. (2002). Managing the marketing budget in a cost-constrained environment. Industrial Marketing Management, 31, 705-apital and new product development performance: The mediating role of organizational learning capability. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 76, 664-677.
65. Zhang, J., & Wu, W. P. (2017). Leveraging internal resources and external business networks for new product success: A dynamic capabilities perspective. Industrial Marketing Management, 61, 170-181.

فایل ها

هم رسانی

ارجاع به این مقاله

آمار