ترکیب روش فرآیند تحلیل شبکه ‏ای و تصمیم‏ گیری چندهدفه به‌منظور پیش‏بینی و کاهش ریسک‌های آتی تأمین‌کنندگان

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 کارشناسی ارشد، گروه مدیریت صنعتی، واحد نجف‏آباد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، نجف‏آباد، ایران.

2 استادیار، گروه مدیریت صنعتی، واحد نجف‏آباد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، نجف‏آباد، ایران.

چکیده

ریسک‌های اساسی تأمین‌کنندگان پیچیدگی و آسیب‌پذیری زنجیره تأمین را افزایش می­ دهد و گاهی سبب بروز اختلال در تأمین مواد می ‏شود؛ بنابراین باید این ریسک‌ها را پیش‏بینی کرد و با ارائه راهکارهایی از قبل آماده مواجهه با آن‌ها شد. در این پژوهش به شناسایی ریسک‌های مختل‏ کننده در زنجیره تأمین «شرکت فولاد مبارکه» و سپس کاهش اثرات احتمالی آن‌ها برای چهار دوره آتی پرداخته شده است. با توجه به نظر خبرگان شرکت، الکترود گرافیتی، استراتژیک‌ ترین ماده موردنیاز شرکت و ریسک‌های مرتبط با تأمین آن مهم‌ترین ریسک‌های مختل‏ کننده زنجیره تأمین شناسایی شد. وزن این ریسک‌ها با روش ANP به­دست آمد که مهم‌ترین ریسک، ریسک عدم­ انعطاف‏ پذیری تأمین‌کنندگان با وزن 5436/0 تعیین گردید. سایر ریسک‌ها با توجه به اهمیت آن‌ها به‌ترتیب ریسک زمان تحویل طولانی سفارش ­ها، ریسک کیفیت پایین و ریسک افزایش قیمت با وزن‌های 1911/0، 1716/0 و 0937/0 بودند. سپس یک مدل بهینه‏ سازی با اهداف چهارگانه طراحی شد که هر تابع هدف درصدد حداقل ‏سازی یکی از ریسک‌های شناسایی شده بود. درنهایت مدل بهینه ‏سازی اهداف چندگانه با دو روش اولویت مطلق و برنامه‏ریزی آرمانی حل و نتایج آن‌ها با هم مقایسه شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Combination of the Analytic Network Process Method and Multi-Objective Decision-Making in order to Predict and Reduce the Future Risks of Suppliers

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mehrnoush Monfared 1
  • Mohammad Hosein Arman 2
  • Masoud Barati 2
1 M.A., Department of Industrial Management, Najafabad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran.
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Industrial Management, Najafabad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran.
چکیده [English]

The essential risks of suppliers increase complexity and vulnerability of supply chain and sometimes cause the disruptions. These risks should be predicted and to coping with them some solutions must be provided beforehand. It is aimed at identifying the disruptive risks in the supply chain of Foolad steel and then decreasing their potential effects for the next four periods. According to experts of the company, the graphite electrode is strategically the most important material as its risks disrupt the supply chain. The weighs of these risks were determined by using ANP and accordingly the most important risk was the risk of non-flexibility of suppliers with a weight of 0.5436. Other risks, the risk of long delivery orders, the risk of low quality and the risk of price increases, have the weights of 0.1911,0.1716 and 0.0937, respectively. Then, a multi-objective function model was developed that each objective function aims to minimize one risk. This model was solved by two methods, absolute priority method and goal programming, and finally the results were compared to each other.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Multi Suppliers Model
  • Resilient Supply Chain
  • Analytic Network Process
  • Absolute Priority Method
  • Goal Programming

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