شبیه‌سازی عامل‌بنیان روابط بازیگران زنجیره ‌تأمین مواد غذایی آماده و نیمه‌آماده برای صادرات در دوران همه‌گیری کرونا (مورد مطالعه: شرکت آماده لذیذ)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد، دانشکده مدیریت صنعتی و فناوری، دانشکدگان مدیریت، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.

2 استادیار، دانشکده مدیریت صنعتی و فناوری، دانشکدگان مدیریت، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.

3 دانشجوی دکتری، دانشکده مدیریت صنعتی و فناوری، دانشکدگان مدیریت، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.

10.48308/jimp.14.4.9

چکیده

چکیده گسترده
مقدمه و اهداف: عدم اطمینان در تأمین مواد غذایی در کشور، توجه به زنجیره تأمین مواد غذایی نیمه­‌آماده را افزایش داده است. زنجیره تأمین مواد غذایی همانند بسیاری از بخش‌­های اقتصادی کشور، از همه‌گیری کرونا مصون نمانده است. تأمین مواد غذایی، با توجه به رفتاری که دولت و مشتریان در این شرایط بروز می‌­دهند، می­تواند بر عدم‌اطمینان زنجیره تأمین بیفزاید و لزوم شبیه­‌سازی رفتار بازیگران زنجیره تأمین در این شرایط را بیشتر کند. از این رو، هدف این پژوهش، شبیه‌­سازی عامل‌بنیان برای تبیین روابط بازیگران زنجیره تأمین غذای آماده و نیمه‌­آماده برای واردات مواد اولیه و صادرات محصولات نهایی در دوران همه‌­گیری کرونا است.
 روش‌­ها: این پژوهش از نظر هدف، کاربردی بوده و از نظر نحوه گردآوری داده‌­ها، با توجه به استفاده از روش شبیه­‌سازی عامل‌بنیان از نوع تحلیلی-توصیفی می‌باشد. مورد مطالعه این پژوهش برای شبیه­‌سازی شرایط همه‌­گیری کرونا در زنجیره تأمین، یکی از شرکت­‌های موادغذایی آماده و نیمه‌­آماده در استان تهران (با ظرفیت تولید 216 هزار تن در ماه) در نظر گرفته شده است. جهت شناسایی عوامل، متغیرها و پارامترهای مدل عامل‌بنیان، از روش تحلیل مضمون با بررسی پیشنه پژوهش و انجام مصاحبه با 20 نفر از خبرگان فعال در صنعت مواد غذایی آماده و نیمه‌­آماده و خبرگان زنجیره تأمین شرکت آماده لذیذ استفاده شده است.
 یافته‌­ها:  بر اساس یافته‌­های به­‌دست آمده، سه عاملِ «دولت» (شامل: گمرک، سازمان ملی استاندارد، سازمان حمایت از مصرف­‌کنندگان، بانک صنعت و معدن، اتاق بازرگانی- صنایع-معادن و کشاورزی ایران و سازمان غذا و دارو)، «شرکت­‌های زنجیره تأمین» (شامل: تأمین داخلی، تأمین­‌کننده خارجی، تولیدکننده، و پخش­‌کننده) و «مشتری نهایی» (شامل مشتریان داخلی و مشتریان خارجی) مهم‌ترین عوامل زنجیره تأمین مواد غذایی هستند که در بحث صادارات نقش‌­­آفرینی می‌کنند. بر اساس مصاحبه‌­ها، مهم‌ترین عدم‌اطمینان شناسایی شده، مداخله و عدم مداخله دولت در امر صادرات و واردات هستند.
بر این اساس، دو سناریوی «دخالت دولت در صادارات و واردات» و «عدم­‌دخالت حمایتی دولت» در شرایط همه­‌گیری، مطرح و توسعه داده شد و روابط و ویژگی آن‌ها و در نهایت، رفتار و تصمیم‌­های بازیگران زنجیره تأمین (عوامل) با روش عامل‎‌بنیان شبیه­‌سازی شد. به عنوان یکی از گام‌­های شبیه­‌سازی از روش دیمتل فازی به منزله روشی مکمل برای شناسایی مهم‌ترین روابط اصلی بین بازیگران زنجیره تأمین مواد غذایی آماده و نیمه‌­آماده استفاده شد. پارامترهای شبیه‌­سازی در این پژوهش شامل: تعرفه‌­های واردات مواد اولیه (برحسب درصد)،  تعرفه‌­های صادرات محصولات (درصد)، حجم کل تقاضای داخلی ماهانه (هزار تن)، حجم کل تقاضای خارجی ماهانه (هزار تن)، حجم کل تقاضا ماهانه (هزارتن) و حداکثر ظرفیت تولید (هزار تن) در نظر گرفته شد.
همچنین متغیرهای مورد استفاده در شبیه‌­سازی این پژوهش شامل: درصد تغییرات قیمت تمام شده نسبت به قیمت پایه، درصد تکمیل سفارشات مشتریان داخلی، درصد تکمیل سفارشات مشتریان خارجی، کل سفارشات تکمیل شده (حجم فروش کل)، میزان سود دریافتی از بازار داخلی، میزان سود دریافتی از بازار خارجی و درصد سود کل به دست آمد. در این بخش، شبیه‌­سازی بر اساس دوسناریوی عدم مداخله حمایتی و مداخله حمایتی دولت در واردات مواد اولیه و صادارت محصولات نهایی، با تأکید بر دو متغیر اصلی «سودآوری» و «درصد تحقق سفارشات» که برآیند همه متغیرهای مدل هستند، شبیه‌­سازی شدند.
نتیجه‌­گیری: بر اساس نتایج پژوهش، در سناریوی مداخله حمایتی دولت، درصد سودآوری 6% و تحقق سفارشات کل 14% افزایش برآورد شد. با توجه به دوشاخص تعریف شده برای مقایسه سناریوها، سناریو دوم شرایط مطلوب‌تری را برای حمایت از تولید داخلی، افزایش سطح اشتغال و امنیت مواد غذایی در بازار داخلی و خارجی ایجاد می‌­نماید.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Agent-Based Simulation of Agent Relationships in the Ready and Semi-Prepared Food Supply Chain for Export During the COVID-19 Pandemic (Case Study: Amadeh-Laziz Company)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ali Mohaghar 1
  • Rohollah Ghasemi 2
  • Ali Askarian 3
1 Professor, Faculty of Industrial Management and Technology, College of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
2 Assistant Professor, Faculty of Industrial Management and Technology, College of Management, University of Tehran.
3 Ph.D. student, Faculty of Industrial Management and Technology, College of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Introduction: Uncertainty in food supply in the country has heightened the focus on the supply chain of semi-prepared foods. Like many economic sectors, the food supply chain has not been immune to the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Food supply, influenced by the behaviors of governments and customers during such crises, can exacerbate uncertainties in the supply chain, underlining the need for simulating the behavior of supply chain actors. Accordingly, the aim of this study is to develop an agent-based simulation to analyze the relationships between actors in the supply chain of ready and semi-prepared foods concerning raw material imports and final product exports during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Methods: This study is applied in its aim and descriptive-analytical in terms of data collection, utilizing agent-based simulation techniques. The case study for simulating pandemic conditions in the supply chain is one of the ready and semi-prepared food companies in Tehran Province with a production capacity of 216,000 tons per month. To identify factors, variables, and parameters for the agent-based model, the research employed thematic analysis, reviewing prior studies, and conducting interviews with 20 industry experts from the ready and semi-prepared food sector and supply chain experts from Amadeh-Laziz Company.
Results and Discussion: The findings identified three main actors in the food supply chain that play a role in exports: “Government”  (e.g., customs, national standards organization, consumer protection organizations, industry and mining banks, Iran Chamber of Commerce-Industries-Mines and Agriculture, and the Food and Drug Administration), “Supply Chain Companies” (e.g., domestic suppliers, foreign suppliers, manufacturers, and distributors), and “Final Customers” (e.g., domestic and foreign customers). The key uncertainty identified in interviews was governmental intervention or non-intervention in exports and imports.
Accordingly, two scenarios were developed: “Governmental intervention in exports and imports”, and “Lack of governmental support in exports and imports during the pandemic”. These scenarios were analyzed using agent-based simulation to examine the relationships, characteristics, and decision-making behaviors of supply chain actors. Additionally, fuzzy DEMATEL was used as a complementary method to identify the most significant relationships among actors in the ready and semi-prepared food supply chain. Simulation parameters included: Import tariffs on raw materials (%), Export tariffs on final products (%), Total monthly domestic demand (in thousand tons), Total monthly foreign demand (in thousand tons), Total monthly demand (in thousand tons), Maximum production capacity (in thousand tons).
Simulation variables included: Percentage change in total costs compared to the base price, Percentage of completed domestic customer orders, Percentage of completed foreign customer orders, Total completed orders (total sales volume), Profits from the domestic market, Profits from the foreign market, Percentage of overall profitability. The simulation was performed under the two scenarios of governmental non-intervention and governmental intervention in importing raw materials and exporting final products, with emphasis on two main variables: profitability and order fulfillment rate, which encapsulate the model’s overall outcomes.
Conclusions: The results indicate that under the governmental intervention scenario, profitability increased by 6%, and total order fulfillment improved by 14%. Based on the defined criteria for scenario comparison, the second scenario (governmental support) provides more favorable conditions for supporting domestic production, enhancing employment levels, and ensuring food security in both domestic and international markets.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Agent-based simulation
  • COVID-19 pandemic
  • fuzzy DEMATEL
  • semi-prepared food
  • supply chain

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