نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد، دانشگاه تهران.

2 دانشیار، دانشگاه تهران.

3 استادیار، دانشگاه تهران.

4 دانشجوی دکتری، دانشگاه تهران.

چکیده

تأخیرهای طولانی در تکمیل واحدهای مسکونی، ناشی از عدم‌­تأمین منابع مالی کافی و به‌موقع یکی از مشکلات سازندگان در فرآیند تولید مسکن است؛ بنابراین پژوهش حاضر با توجه به چالش‌­هایی که مانع پیش‌فروش مؤثر واحدهای مسکونی برای تأمین منابع مالی هستند، بر آن است تا با ارائه مدلی بر اساس رویکرد پویایی­ سیستم، سیاست­‌های پیش‌­فروش مسکن را در راستای تأمین منابع مالی مکفی و به‌موقع، کاهش تأخیر در تکمیل، کاهش هزینه فرصت ازدست‌رفته و حصول توازن بین سود سازنده و سود خریدار تعیین کند. پس از ایجاد مدل دینامیکی و اعتبارسنجی آن، 48 سناریو متشکل از حالت‌­های پنج متغیر اهرمی، شبیه­‌سازی­‌شده و پس از تحلیل نتایج، سیاست‌­های­ بهبود مشتمل بر چهار راهکار استخراج شد. نتایج نشان می­‌دهد برای تولید واحدهای مسکونی با قیمت متوسط، چنانچه درصد متراژ ارائه‌شده برای پیش‌فروش اولیه 30 درصد، ضریب تخفیف پیش‌فروش اولیه نسبت به قیمت واحد تکمیل‌شده 6 درصد، ضریب پیش‌پرداخت 30 درصد، ضریب قسط پیش از تحویل 30 درصد و عملکرد در تصمیم پیش‌فروش جبرانی در حالت عدم‌­تأخیر قرار گیرد، به کاهش قابل­‌توجه تأخیر در تکمیل و هزینه فرصت ازدست‌رفته و ایجاد توازن بین سود سازنده و خریدار منجر می­‌شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

A System Dynamics Model for Determining Pre-Sale Policies to Facilitate Housing Production and Achieve Financial Benefits for Developers and Buyers

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ali Mohaghar 1
  • Mohammad Reza Sadeghi Moghadam 2
  • Mahnaz Hosseinzadeh 3
  • Gholamreza Heravi 1
  • Mojtaba Fallahnejad 4

1 Professor, University of Tehran.

2 Associate Professor, University of Tehran.

3 Assistant Professor, University of Tehran.

4 Ph.D Student, University of Tehran.

چکیده [English]

Long-term delays to complete residential units, due to lack of adequate and punctual financing, is considered as a developer's problem, in the process of housing production. In this regard, the present study, with the consideration of the challenges that obstacle the efficient pre-sale of residential units, aims to determine the pre-sale policies of housing by providing a model based on the system dynamics approach in order to provide sufficient and punctual financial resources, reduce delays in completion, reduce opportunity cost and to achieve a balance between developers’ and buyers’ profit. After making a dynamic model and validating it, 48 scenarios consisting of the states of five lever variables were simulated and after analyzing the results, improvement policies which include four alternatives were extracted. The results indicate that to produce the residential units with average prices, whether the percentage offered of area for initial pre-sale is 0/3, the initial pre-sale discount coefficient relative to the price of the completed unit is 0/06 and the down payment coefficient is 0/3, from which the mentioned variables will lead to a significant reduction in completion delays and opportunity cost, and also will balance the profit of both developers and buyers.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Housing Pre-sale
  • Financing of Housing Production
  • Reduction of Delays in Housing Production
  • Achieving the interests of developers and buyers
  • system dynamics
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