یک مدل برنامه‌ریزی دو مرحله‌ای برای آمایش کشت برنج تحت شرایط عدم قطعیت پویا (مورد مطالعه: ایران)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد، دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران.

2 دانشیار، دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران.

10.52547/jimp.11.2.145

چکیده

برنج به‌عنوان یکی از کالاهای اساسی در بخش کشاورزی عموماً توسط کشاورزان روستایی بر اساس تجربه در مزارع کشاورزی کشت می‌شود. کشت سنتی این محصول به هدر­رفت منابع طبیعی، مانند ذخایر آب، منجر شده است. هدف پژوهش حاضر یافتن پهنه‌های مناسب و تعیین الگوی کشت برنج با استفاده از یک روش دومرحله‌ای است. در قسمت اول برای دسته‌بندی پهنه‌های مناسب برای کشت برنج در ایران از ادغام سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی با روش بهترین ـ بدترین استفاده شد. مرحله اول به‌عنوان ورودی به مرحله دوم، یعنی مدل بهینه‌سازی برای تعیین الگوی کشت برنج در نظر گرفته می‌شود. برای در­نظر­گرفتن شرایط آب‌وهوایی در همه دوره‌ها از رویکرد بهینه‌سازی تصادفی چندمرحله‌ای استفاده شد. شرایط آب‌وهوایی در هر دوره در سه سناریو موردبررسی قرار گرفت. کاربرد مدل در مطالعه موردی کشور ایران بررسی شد. نتایج نشان می­دهد که بیشتر پهنه‌های مناسب برای کشت برنج در شمال کشور و قسمتی از غرب ایران قرار گرفته است و الگوی کشت مناسب برای بیشتر کشاورزان، کشت برنج پرمحصول و به روش نشایی است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

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