ارزیابی تاب‌آوری زنجیره‌ تأمین واکسن کووید-19 با استفاده از شبکه‌های بیز

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد، گروه مدیریت عملیات و فناوری اطلاعات، دانشکده مدیریت، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران.

2 استادیار، گروه مدیریت عملیات و فناوری اطلاعات، دانشکده مدیریت، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

طی دوره همه‌گیری کووید-19، مهم‌ترین چالش زنجیره‌ تأمین واکسن کووید-19، مواجهه با اختلالات مختلفی است که آن را احاطه کرده است. حل این چالش‌­ها به برون‌رفت از همه‌گیری منجر خواهد شد؛ بنابراین شناسایی و ارزیابی ریسک‌های موجود در زنجیره‌ تأمین واکسن کووید-19 ضروری است. در این پژوهش از یک معیار جدید برای کمّی­‌کردن تاب‌­آوری زنجیره‌‌تأمین واکسن استفاده شده است. تاب‌­آوری به‌عنوان تابعی از آسیب‌پذیری و قابلیت بازیابی عوامل ریسک تعریف شده و در ادامه با استفاده از روش شبکه‌های بیز، تاب‌آوری در زنجیره‌ تأمین واکسن کووید-19 در ایران ارزیابی شده است. این رویکرد می‌تواند توسط مدیران برای سنجش تاب­آوری و شناسایی دلایل کاهش عملکرد زنجیره‌ تأمین واکسن کووید-19 به­‌کار رود. نتایج نشان داد ریسک‌های شیوع غیرمنتظره بیماری، عدم­‌‌دسترسی به تأمین‌کنندگان واکسن، کارایی پایین واکسن در برابر گونه‌های مختلف، عدم­پیش‌بینی دقیق تقاضای واکسن و عدم‌­موفقیت در انتخاب تأمین‌کنندگان درست، ریسک‌هایی هستند که با احتمال بالایی به اختلال در زنجیره‌ تأمین واکسن منجر می‌شوند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluating the Resilience of COVID-19 Vaccine Supply Chain using Bayesian Networks

نویسندگان [English]

  • Samaneh Peyghami 1
  • Mojtaba Farrokh 2
  • Reza Yousefi Zonouz 2
  • Aboozar Jamalnia 2
1 MA Student, Department of Operations Management and Information Technology, Faculty of Management, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran.
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Operations Management and Information Technology, Faculty of Management, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

The COVID-19 pandemic has posed a significant challenge to the COVID-19 vaccine supply chain that need to be resolved for a successful exit from the pandemic. It is essential to identify and evaluate the risks associated with the vaccine supply chain. We propose a new measure for quantifying the resilience of the vaccine supply chain in Iran. To evaluate the resilience of the vaccine supply chain, we use a Bayesian network to consider the vulnerability and recoverability indices as well as the associated disruption propagation. This approach enables managers to measure the resilience of the supply chain and identify the reasons for performance decline due to the ripple effect. Our results show that outbreak risks, lack of access to vaccine suppliers, low efficacy of the vaccine against new variants, inaccurate prediction of vaccine demand, and failure to choose the right suppliers are the risks likely to have a high impact on the disruption of the vaccine supply chain. Our approach provides a useful tool for evaluating the resilience of the vaccine supply chain and identifying the critical risks. It can be used by decision-makers to mitigate the impact of disruptions and improve overall resilience of the vaccine supply chain.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Resilience
  • Risk
  • Vaccine Supply Chain
  • COVID-19
  • Bayesian Network

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