ارزیابی ریسک پروژه‌های تعمیرات اساسی در صنایع فرایندی بالادستی نفت با استفاده از یک روش تصمیم‌گیری چندشاخصه فازی ترکیبی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی.

2 استاد، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی.

3 استادیار، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی.

چکیده

اجرای صحیح پروژه‌های تعمیرات اساسی کارخانه‌های فرایندی در صنایع بالادستی نفت که شامل تجهیزات و تأسیسات سرمایه‌بر بسیاری هستند، از اهمیت بالایی برخوردار است. شناسایی و ارزیابی صحیح ریسک‌های این نوع پروژه‌ها، گامی مهم در جهت کاهش چشمگیر خسارات مالی، انسانی و زیست‌محیطی آن‌ها محسوب می‌­شود. در این پژوهش، چارچوبی جدید برای ارزیابی انواع ریسک‌های این نوع از پروژه‌ها ارائه شده است. بر این اساس ابتدا با استفاده از نظر خبرگان، ریسک‌های این نوع پروژه‌ها با استفاده از روش مصاحبه و طوفان فکری شناسایی شد. 10 مورد از این ریسک‌ها با استفاده از روش دلفی فازی به‌عنوان مهم‌ترین موارد انتخاب شده و با روش ترکیبی SWARA و EDAS فازی مبتنی بر اعداد فازی ذوزنقه‌ای مورد­ارزیابی قرار گرفت. بر اساس یافته‌های پژوهش، از منظر خبرگان ریسک تأمین مالی به‌موقع از سوی کارفرما، با امتیاز ارزیابی 0/83 دارای بالاترین رتبه در میان ریسک‌ها است و ریسک شکست و نقص تجهیزات در حین عملیات، با امتیاز ارزیابی 0/04، پایین‌ترین رتبه را در میان ریسک‌های پروژه‌های تعمیرات اساسی صنایع فرایندی بالادستی نفت دارا است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Upstream Oil Process Plants Turnaround Projects Risk Evaluation Using a Hybrid Fuzzy MADM Method

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammadreza Moniri 1
  • Akbar Alem Tabriz 2
  • Ashkan Ayough 3
1 Ph.D Candidate, Shahid Beheshti University.
2 Professor, Shahid Beheshti University.
3 Assistant Professor, Shahid Beheshti University.
چکیده [English]

Process plants turnaround maintenance projects in upstream oil industry, which includes many capital-intensive installations and equipments, are very important. Accurate risk identification and evaluation of such project’s risks is an important step to significant decrease in financial, human and environmental damages of them. A new framework for such projects risk asessment is presented in this article. According to this framework, risks were identified according to expert’s judgment, using interviews and brain storming at first. Then, using fuzzy Delphi method, ten risks have been chosen as most important risks and then, analyzed using a hybrid fuzzy SWARA and EDAS method based on traoezodial fuzzy numbers. According to research   findings, on time financial providence from project owner with an appraisal score of 0.83 ranked the highest and equipment failure during operations with an appraisal score of 0.04 ranked the lowest among the oil upstream process plants turnaround project’s risks.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Project Risk Management
  • Oil Upstream Industry
  • Turnaround
  • Fuzzy Multiple Attribute Decision Making
  • Process Industries

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