تحلیل سیاست قیمت‌گذاری خوراک محصولات پتروشیمی با رویکرد سیستم‌های پویا

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد، دانشگاه تهران.

2 استاد، دانشگاه تهران.

3 دانشیار، دانشگاه تهران.

چکیده

هدف این پژوهش، مدل‌سازی سیاست‌های قیمت‌گذاری خوراک محصولات اوره-آمونیاک پتروشیمی با استفاده از رویکرد پویایی‌های سیستم و تشریح اثرات اجرای سیاست‌های مختلف و ارزیابی اثرات هر سیاست است. برای تحلیل رفتار سیستم مدل‌سازی بر مبنای رویکرد پویایی سیستمی با استفاده از نرم‌افزار «ونسیم» صورت گرفت. پس از انتخاب رویکرد پویایی سیستمی با مصاحبه‌های عمیق با خبرگان و شناسایی حلقه‌ها و ارتباط علّی بین متغیرهای تأثیرگذار بر سیستم، همچون قیمت فروش اوره و آمونیاک، درصد تخفیف برای فروش داخل و طرح‌های تولیدی جدید اوره و آمونیاک، نمودار علّی و معلولی طراحی‌ شد. بعد از طراحی نمودار جریان و فرمول‌بندی متغیرها، اعتبار مدل تأیید شده و رفتار سیستم تحت سناریوهای متعدد تحلیل و اثر سیاست‌های مختلف بررسی شد. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که با کاهش قیمت‌های جهانی اوره در سال‌های آینده برای اقتصادی‌بودن طرح‌های جدید اوره-آمونیاک و سودآوری شرکت‌های فعلی باید قیمتی کمتر از قیمت فعلیبرای خوراک تعیین شود. با توجه به تغییرات زیاد در قیمت‌های جهانی در سال‌های اخیر می‌توان یکی از بهترین سیاست‌ها را ارتباط بین قیمت‌های فروش و خوراک اوره و آمونیاک دانست که بر این اساس هم قیمت عادلانه‌تر تعیین‌شده و هم به سودآوری صنعت ضربه وارد نمی‌شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Pricing-Policy Analysis of Petrochemical Feed-Stock through Dynamic Systems Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hossein Soltanian Telkabadi 1
  • Ali Mohaghar 2
  • Mohammad Reza Sadeghi Moghadam 3
1 * MS. Student, University of Tehran.
2 Professor, University of Tehran.
3 Associate Professor, University of Tehran.
چکیده [English]

The purpose of this study is modeling and analyizing pricing policy of urea-ammonia Petrochemical feedstock through dynamic system approach.  The article outlines the effects of different policies and assesses the impact of each policy. To analyze and modeling system behavior based on dynamic system approach, Venssim software is applied. Having explained the problem, and choosing the approach; cause and loop diagram were identified through in-depth interviews with experts. The latter leads to scrutinizing loops and causal relationship between the variables affecting the system which includes: a selling price of urea and ammonia, discount on domestic sales, new urea and ammonia manufacturing plants. In the next step flow chart were designed, variables were formulated, and model validation was investigated under many scenarios. Finallythe impacts of different policies are studied. The results show that recent worldy decline of urea prices, justifies new projects of urea-ammonia .The profitability of the current company should set prices of feedstock below the current price. The best pricing policy that Ammonia & Urea feedstock can choose is the link between sales prices and feedstock prices, which yieldsto more precise prices while not decling the profitability.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Urea and Ammonia
  • System Dynamics
  • Petrochemicals
  • Prices Feestock
 
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