Model-Based Assessment of Energy Dependency Policies: A System Dynamics Approach

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Lecturer, University of Eyvanekey, Garmsar.

2 Associated Professor, University of Tehran.

Abstract

The high and unreasonable demand for fuel in Iran, and also the excessive and irrational consumption of fuel in various sectors, including transportation along with cheap fuel for power generation plants, the lack of proper standards for fuel consumption in different sectors, has brought the high dependency on fossil fuels energy supply for Iran. This problem is a serious threat to the country's energy security, in light of the increasing trend in energy demand and in particular the energy intensity of the country's energy supply. Understanding the system structure of this dependency is the main objective of the present research. The research methodology is based on the system dynamics approach. A stock and flow model of energy dependency was developed and four scenarios have tested on it. From the comparison of the four scenarios, it can be said that the current energy dependency on is continuing to increase. Based on the results, it is recommended that the demand-side management policy and the development of renewable energy capacities reduce energy dependency and increase energy security together.

Keywords

References

1. Ahmad, S., & bin Mat Tahar, R. (2014). Using system dynamics to evaluate renewable electricity development in Malaysia. Kybernetes, 43(1), 24-39.
2. Ang, B. W., Choong, W., & Ng, T. (2015). Energy security: Definitions, dimensions and indexes. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 42, 1077-1093.
3. Aslani, A., Helo, P., & Naaranoja, M. (2014). Role of renewable energy policies in energy dependency in Finland: System dynamics approach. Applied energy, 113, 758-765.
4. Aslani, A., & Wong, K.-F. V. (2014). Analysis of renewable energy development to power generation in the United States. Renewable Energy, 63, 153-161.
5. Barton, B. (2004). Energy security: managing risk in a dynamic legal and regulatory environment: Oxford University Press on Demand.
6. Bastan, M., Akbarpour, S., Ahmadvand, A. (2016). Business Dynamics of Iranian Commercial Banks, The 34th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society. Delft, the Netherlands (in Persian).
7. Bastan, M., Akbarpour, S., Ahmadvand, A., Shakouri G., H. (2019). Making the Profitability Paradox of Bad Banks: A System Dynamics Approach. The 3rd IEOM European Conference on Industrial Engineering and Operations Management, Pilsen, Czech Republic.
8. Bastan, M., Ramazani K., R., Delshad S., S., Ahmadvand, A. (2018). Sustainable development of agriculture: a system dynamics model. Kybernetes, 47(1), 142-162.
9. Banos, R., Manzano-Agugliaro, F., Montoya, F. G., Gil, C., Alcayde, A., & Gómez, J. (2011). Optimization methods applied to renewable and sustainable energy: A review. Renewable and sustainable energy reviews, 15(4), 1753-1766.
10. Cherp, A., & Jewell, J. (2014). The concept of energy security: Beyond the four As. Energy Policy, 75, 415-421.
11. Ellabban, O., Abu-Rub, H., & Blaabjerg, F. (2014). Renewable energy resources: Current status, future prospects and their enabling technology. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 39, 748-764.
12. Farajzadeh, Z. (2016). Energy Intensity in the Iranian Economy: Components and Determinants. Iranian Energy Economics, 4(15), 55-98. doi: 10.22054/jiee.2016.1880 (in Persian)
13. Hsu, C.-W. (2012). Using a system dynamics model to assess the effects of capital subsidies and feed-in tariffs on solar PV installations. Applied energy, 100, 205-217.
14. Jebaselvi, G. A., & Paramasivam, S. (2013). Analysis on renewable energy systems. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 28, 625-634.
15. Khoshneshin, F., Bastan, M. (2014). Analysis of dynamics of crisis management in the earthquake and performance Improvement using system dynamics methodology, The 10th International Conference on Industrial Engineering (IIEC 2014), Tehran, Iran (in Persian).
16. Kovačovská, L. (2007). European Union’s energy (in) security: dependence on Russia. Def Strateg, 2, 5-21.
17. Kruyt, B., van Vuuren, D. P., de Vries, H. J., & Groenenberg, H. (2009). Indicators for energy security. Energy Policy, 37(6), 2166-2181.
18. Lean, H. H., & Smyth, R. (2013). Are fluctuations in US production of renewable energy permanent or transitory? Applied energy, 101, 483-488.
19. Maleki, A. (2007). Energy security and lessons for Iran, Development Strategy, 4(12), 206-222 (in Persian)
20. Månsson, A., Johansson, B., & Nilsson, L. J. (2014). Assessing energy security: An overview of commonly used methodologies. Energy, 73, 1-14.
21. Mohaghar, A., Hashemi Petrodi, S., Talaei, H. (2017). Dynamic Modeling of a New Product Supply Chain using System Dynamics Approach. Journal of Industrial Management Perspective, 6(4), 9-36 (in Persian).
22. Rabieh, M., Salari, H., Karami, M., Ziyaei, M., Yasoubi, A. (2017). Causal Loop Model for Problem of Traffic Accident: The System Dynamics Approach. Journal of Industrial Management Perspective, 7(1), 115-143 (in Persian).
23. Radovanović, M., Filipović, S., & Pavlović, D. (2017). Energy security measurement–A sustainable approach. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 68, 1020-1032.
24. Richter, M. (2012). Utilities’ business models for renewable energy: A review. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 16(5), 2483-2493.
25. Ruhul, S., Rafiq, S., & Hassan, A. K. (2008). Causality and dynamics of energy consumption and output: Evidence from non-OECD Asian countries. Journal of Economic Development, 33(2), 1-26.
26. Soltanian Telkabadi, H., Mohaghar, A., Sadeghi Moghadam, M. (2016). Pricing-Policy Analysis of Petrochemical Feed-Stock through Dynamic Systems Approach. Journal of Industrial Management Perspective, 5(4), 59-78 (in Persian).
27. Wu, Z., & Xu, J. (2013). Predicting and optimization of energy consumption using system dynamics-fuzzy multiple objective programming in world heritage areas. Energy, 49, 19-31.
28. Zadfallah, E., Bastan, M., Ahmadvand, A. (2017). A Qualitative System Dynamics Approach to Clinical Risk Management, The 13th International Conference on Industrial Engineering (IIEC2017), Babolsar, Iran (in Persian).
Journal of Industrial Management Perspective
Volume 9, Issue 2 - Serial Number 34
September 2019
Pages 81-106

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics