Prospect Theory and Modeling Industrial Manager Decision Making Pattern

Document Type : Original Article


1 Associate Professor, Shiraz University, Shiraz.

2 Professor, Shiraz University.

3 Ph.D, Shiraz University.


Behavioral decision making is one of the new subjects that are currently of interest to academic circles. This method believes that the decision making is not conducted in a manner that is defined in the rational patterns. The impact of various factors on the process of decision making, especially human properties and behavioral aspects is highly significant. In this paper industry managers of Fars province have been examined through the theory of vision and behavioral attitude. Through selecting 50-people sample from the industrial sector managers, primary data was collected via a questionnaire, then the initial value of the parameters of the effect were estimated according to the vision of the theory. In the next step using Newton's Rapshon method, the initial value of the parameters was optimized and the pattern of decision-making of managers was evaluated based on the prospect theory. Research results showed that the behavioral decision making role in the prospect theory (which is evaluated based on the indicators of change the sensitivity in relation to the profit and loss ratio) becomes very important, so that the change of sensitivity in loss region more than profit region. Regarding the impact of the behavioral models on the decision making process of behavioral patterns managers, Firstly, the utility of reducing the losses is more than the increase in profits. Thus risk taking has priority on risk aversion. Secondly the statistical population of the study reveals more sensitivity to reduction of the loss in comparison to the profits increase.