The Efficinecy and Predictability of Industrial Commodities using Fundamental and Technical Approaches

Document Type : Original Article


1 M.A., Esfahan University.

2 Assistant Professor, Esfahan University.


This study examines the week-form efficiency and predictability of lead market using both technical and fundamental approaches and tries to find the best method to be used for predicting the lead price. To this end, we first test the week-form efficiency and show that the time series of prices does not follow a random walk, so we can conclude that the week form information efficiency does not hold in the lead market and the lead price is predictable. Then a range of linear and non-linear methods have been used to peredit lead price. The data for lead price and fundamental factors are weakly observations over the first week of 2005 up to the last week of 2015 and has been gathered using a variety of resources including LME, SGS, ILZSG, FRED websites. The results show that in the technical approach, the hybrid GMDH and genetic algorithm model is the best model in terms of the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).  In the fundamental approach, two stage least-square is the best model in terms of RMSE and MAPE. As the market is not efficient, the next question is if the market participant can apply investment strategies to exploit the peredictability in this market in their trades. The question may be investigated by future reaseach.


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