Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1
Professor, Faculty of Industrial Management and Technology, College of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
2
Assistant Professor, Faculty of Industrial Management and Technology, College of Management, University of Tehran.
3
Ph.D. student, Faculty of Industrial Management and Technology, College of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
10.48308/jimp.2024.234967.1537
Abstract
Uncertainty environmet has increased attention to the supply chain of semi-prepared food in the Iran. The food supply chain, like other economic sectors, was not immune from the Corona Pandemic. The research aims to identify the modeling of Iran's semi-prepared food supply chain during this situation in the conditions of government intervention and non-intervention in exports and imports. The research method is applied and analytical-descriptive. The case study is one of the semi- prepared food companies in Tehran province with a production capacity of 216 thousand tons per month. In order to identify the factors, variables and parameters of the model, thematic analysis method was used by examining the research background and interview. Three factors of "government", "supply-production-distribution companies", "final customer" were identified and two scenarios of "government intervention in exports and imports" and "non-intervention" were proposed during the pandemic. Relationships, their characteristics and finally the behavior and decisions of the agents were simulated with the agent-based modeling. Fuzzy DEMATEL method was used to investigate the main relationships between factors. Based on the simulation results, two variables "profitability" and "percentage of order fulfillment" were simulated. Based on the results in the government support intervention scenario, the percentage of profitability was estimated to increase by 6% and the fulfillment of total orders by 14%.According to the two indicators defined to compare the scenarios, the second scenario creates more favorable conditions for supporting domestic production, increasing the level of employment and food security in the domestic and foreign markets.
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