Journal of Industrial Management Perspective

Journal of Industrial Management Perspective

Alternative futures of Blockchain in the dairy supply chain

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
Maryam Afiyat doost 1
Reza Ahmadi kahnali 2
Hassan Biabani 3
1 M.A. student, Faculty of Management, university of Hormozgan, Bandarabas, Iran.
2 Associate professor, Faculty of Management, University of Hormozgan, Bandarabas, Iran.
3 Assistant professor, Faculty of Management, University of Hormozgan, Bandarabas, Iran.
10.48308/jimp.16.2.98
Abstract
Introduction. The dairy supply chain, due to the perishable nature of raw milk, the large number of supply chain actors, safety sensitivities, and the vital role of trust among stakeholders including animal feed producers, livestock holding facilities, and raw milk collection centers has long faced challenges such as lack of information transparency across the supply chain, risk of fraud, weak traceability of shared information, and mistrust among members of the dairy supply chain. These challenges are particularly critical in the upstream stages of the chain and can lead to significant economic and public health consequences for the entire system. In recent years, blockchain technology has emerged as a key technology of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, aimed at enhancing transparency, trust, and traceability in food supply chains. However, the future application of this technology in the dairy supply chain especially in the critical and less-studied “farm-to-factory” segment is surrounded by considerable uncertainty. These uncertainties stem from the simultaneous interaction of technical, organizational, and environmental factors within the dairy supply chain context. The objective of this study is to elucidate the possible futures of blockchain adoption in the dairy supply chain, with a focus on the upstream segment, and to identify the key scenarios ahead.
Methods. The present study is applied in nature and exploratory futures-oriented in approach. Using a scenario-based framework, the key drivers affecting the adoption of blockchain technology in the dairy supply chain were first identified and refined through a literature review and expert consultation. Then, by considering different plausible states for each driver, the necessary data were collected and analyzed. Finally, future scenarios for the adoption of blockchain in the dairy supply chain were developed, evaluated, and compared. This approach enables a systematic examination of uncertainties and the mapping of a spectrum of conceivable futures.
Results and Discussion. The results indicate that seven key drivers play a dominant role in shaping the future of blockchain adoption in the dairy supply chain: production system flexibility, trust among supply chain actors, collaboration with information and communication technology (ICT) providers, readiness of supply chain partners, social acceptance of blockchain technology, investment attraction, and the level of inter-organizational collaboration. Based on morphological analysis and scenario quality assessment, ten high-consistency and high-probability scenarios were identified. The findings reveal that even in scenarios characterized by high social acceptance of blockchain technology, insufficient investment and weak coordination among supply chain actors can significantly limit its effective implementation in the upstream dairy supply chain. In contrast, optimistic scenarios emphasize the simultaneous strengthening of technological readiness, trust-building mechanisms, and collaborative governance structures as prerequisites for ensuring milk authenticity, reducing fraud risks, and improving transparency between farms and processing plants.
Conclusion. This study demonstrates that the successful future implementation of blockchain technology in the dairy supply chain particularly in the critical farm-to-factory segment depends not only on technological advancement but also on institutional, behavioral, and collaborative factors. The developed scenarios provide a structured framework for understanding uncertainties and guiding strategic decision-making. From a practical perspective, the results offer valuable insights for dairy industry managers and policymakers to design gradual, cost-effective, and trust-oriented pathways for blockchain adoption, ultimately contributing to enhanced transparency, food safety, and sustainability in the dairy sector. Accordingly, the informed use of this study’s findings can contribute to improved policymaking quality and reduced implementation risks in the future.
Keywords
Supply chain
dairy products
blockchain
scenario planning
morphology analysis
Subjects
1.     Ahl, A., Goto, M., Yarime, M., Tanaka, K., & Sagawa, D. (2022). Challenges and opportunities of blockchain energy applications: Interrelatedness among technological, economic, social, environmental, and institutional dimensions. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 166, 112623. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2022.112623
2.     Alazab, M., Alhyari, S., Awajan, A., & Abdallah, A. B. (2021). Blockchain technology in supply chain management: An empirical study of the factors affecting user adoption/acceptance. Cluster Computing, 24(1), 83–101. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10586-020-03200-4
3.     Alkhateeb, A., Catal, C., Kar, G., & Mishra, A. (2022). Hybrid blockchain platforms for the internet of things (IoT): A systematic literature review. Sensors, 22(4), 1304. https://doi.org/10.3390/s22041304
4.     Amer, M., Daim, T. U., & Jetter, A. (2013). A review of scenario planning. Futures, 46, 23–40. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2012.10.003
5.     Aslam, J., Saleem, A., & Kim, Y. B. (2023). Blockchain-enabled supply chain management: Integrated impact on firm performance and robustness capabilities. Business Process Management Journal, 29(6), 1680–1705. https://doi.org/10.1108/BPMJ-03-2023-0165
6.     Abdul Mumin, M., Adam, I. O., & Alhassan, M. D. (2024). The impact of ICT capabilities on supply chain fraud and sustainability: A dynamic capability perspective. Technological Sustainability, 3(2), 123–146. https://doi.org/10.1108/TECHS-11-2023-0051
7.     Aggarwal, M., Rani, P., Rani, P., & Sharma, P. (2024). Revolutionizing agri-food supply chain management with blockchain-based traceability and navigation integration. Cluster Computing, 27(9), 12919–12942. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10586-024-04609-x
8.     Beck, R., Czepluch, J. S., Lollike, N., & Malone, S. (2016). Blockchain–the gateway to trust-free cryptographic transactions. In Proceedings of the Twenty-Fourth European Conference on Information Systems (ECIS 2016) (pp. 1–14), Istanbul, Turkey. Springer Publishing Company. https://aisel.aisnet.org/ecis2016_rp/153
9.     Berdik, D., Otoum, S., Schmidt, N., Porter, D., & Jararweh, Y. (2021). A survey on blockchain for information systems management and security. Information Processing & Management, 58(1), 102397. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ipm.2020.102397
10.  Bigliardi, B., & Filippelli, S. (2022). A review of the literature on innovation in the agrofood industry: Sustainability, smartness and health. European Journal of Innovation Management, 25(6), 589–611. https://doi.org/10.1108/EJIM-05-2021-0258
11.  Casino, F., Kanakaris, V., Dasaklis, T. K., Moschuris, S., Stachtiaris, S., Pagoni, M., & Rachaniotis, N. P. (2021). Blockchain-based food supply chain traceability: A case study in the dairy sector. International Journal of Production Research, 59(19), 5758–5770. https://doi.org/10.1080/00207543.2020.1789238
12.  Chermack, T. J. (2011). Scenario planning in organizations: How to create, use, and assess scenarios. Berrett-Koehler Publishers.
13.  Dai, Y., Xu, D., Zhang, K., Maharjan, S., & Zhang, Y. (2020). Deep reinforcement learning and permissioned blockchain for content caching in vehicular edge computing and networks. IEEE Transactions on Vehicular Technology, 69(4), 4312–4324. https://doi.org/10.1109/TVT.2020.2973705
14.  Godet, M., Durance, P., & Gerber, A. (2008). Strategic foresight: La prospective. Cahiers du LIPSOR, 143.
15.  Gordon, W. J., & Catalini, C. (2018). Blockchain technology for healthcare: Facilitating the transition to patient-driven interoperability. Computational and Structural Biotechnology Journal, 16, 224–230. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csbj.2018.06.003
16.  Guggenberger, T., Schweizer, A., & Urbach, N. (2020). Improving interorganizational information sharing for vendor managed inventory: Toward a decentralized information hub using blockchain technology. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 67(4), 1074–1085. https://doi.org/10.1109/TEM.2020.2978628
17.  Hastig, G. M., & Sodhi, M. S. (2020). Blockchain for supply chain traceability: Business requirements and critical success factors. Production and Operations Management, 29(4), 935–954. https://doi.org/10.1111/poms.13147
18.  Hawashin, D., Salah, K., Jayaraman, R., Ahmad, R. W., Kanhere, S., & Damiani, E. (2025). Enhancing sustainability in dairy industry: Blockchain-based waste reduction. Sustainable Futures, 9, 100529. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sftr.2025.100529
19.  Hoorshad, A., Safari, H., & Ghasemi, R. (2023). Developing smart supply chain management model in fast-moving consumer goods industry (FMCG). Journal of Industrial Management Perspective, 13(4), 108–148. (In Persian)
20.  Johansen, I. (2018). Scenario modelling with morphological analysis. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 126, 116-125. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2017.05.016
21.  Kasten, J. (2019). Blockchain application: The dairy supply chain. Journal of Supply Chain Management Systems, 8(1), 45–54.
22.  Khan, S., Kaushik, M. K., Kumar, R., & Khan, W. (2023). Investigating the barriers of blockchain technology integrated food supply chain: A BWM approach. Benchmarking: An International Journal, 30(3), 713–735. https://doi.org/10.1108/BIJ-08-2021-0489
23.  Khanlarzade, N. (2024). Improving the sustainability of the dairy supply chain using cold plasma and blockchain: An evolution in deterioration management. Journal of Industrial Innovations, 2(2), 161–179.
24.  Khelil, A., Snene Manzli, Y., & Louzir Ben Hassine, A. (2024). Blockchain use in high-tech supply chain: A new perspective of the unified theory of acceptance and use of technology. Journal of Science and Technology Policy Management. https://doi.org/10.1108/JSTPM-12-2023-0226
25.  Kouhizadeh, M., & Sarkis, J. (2018). Blockchain practices, potentials, and perspectives in greening supply chains. Sustainability, 10(10), 3652. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10103652
26.  Kshetri, N. (2022). Blockchain and supply chain management (R. Alizadeh & M. R. Akbari Jokar, Trans.). Tehran: Bazargani Publications. (Original work published 2021). (In Persian)
27.  Lanzini, F., Ubacht, J., & De Greeff, J. (2021). Blockchain adoption factors for SMEs in supply chain management. Journal of Supply Chain Management Science, 2(1–2), 47–68. https://doi.org/10.18757/jscms.2021.5624
28.  López-Naranjo, A. L., Larrea-Cuadrado, P. L., & Mazón-Fierro, G. (2025). Transformation of the dairy supply chain through artificial intelligence: A systematic review. Sustainability, 17(3), 982. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17030982
29.  Malik, M., Gahlawat, V. K., Mor, R. S., & Singh, M. K. (2024). Unlocking dairy traceability: Current trends, applications, and future opportunities. Future Foods, 10, 100426. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fufo.2024.100426
30.  Malik, M., Dalal, M., Mor, A., Toor, K., Yadav, D. K., & Gahlawat, V. K. (2025). Dairy traceability: Pathways to a sustainable and resilient supply chain. In Trends in Animal-Based Foods (pp. 137–148). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-032-00575-5_7
31.  Mohammed, A., Potdar, V., Quaddus, M., & Hui, W. (2023). Blockchain adoption in food supply chains: A systematic literature review on enablers, benefits, and barriers. IEEE Access, 11, 14236–14255. https://doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2023.3236666
32.  Nasiri Galeh, M., & Sahraei, S. (2024). Investigating the impact of blockchain implementation in the supply chain of dairy products in Iran. Supply Chain Management, 26(82), 95–102. (In Persian)
33.  Plakantara, S. P., & Karakitsiou, A. (2025). Transforming agrifood supply chains with digital technologies: A systematic review of safety and quality risk management. Operations Research Forum, 6(3), 113. Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43069-025-00511-3
34.  Pouragha, B., Baghian, N., & Najafi, M. (2018). Futures study in health: A review study. Evidence Based Health Policy, Management and Economics. https://doi.org/10.18502/jebhpme.v2i4.281
35.  Queiroz, M. M., & Wamba, S. F. (2019). Blockchain adoption challenges in supply chain: An empirical investigation of the main drivers in India and the USA. International Journal of Information Management, 46, 70–82. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijinfomgt.2018.11.021
36.  Rahimi, A., Taghizadeh, G., & Mahmoudabadi, S. (2022). Proposing an interpretive structural model of barriers to using blockchain technology in the food supply. Research in Production and Operations Management, 13(1), 79–104. (In Persian). https://dx.doi.org/10.22108/jpom.2022.131836.1412
37.  Rayat Pishe, S., & Tizroo, A. (2016). Strategies of customs and logistics to clients through scenario planning approach. Journal of Industrial Management Perspective, 6(3), 101–129. (In Persian)
38.  Rezaee, L., & Babazadeh, R. (2020). Investigating the relationships between the influencing indicators of blockchain in the food industry. Research in Production and Operations Management, 11(3), 95–116. https://doi.org/10.22108/jpom.2021.123858.1279
39.  Ritchey, T. (2005). Futures studies using morphological analysis. UN University Millennium Project, Futures Research Methodology Series, 14.
40.  Ronaghi, M. H. (2021). A blockchain maturity model in agricultural supply chain. Information Processing in Agriculture, 8(3), 398–408. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inpa.2020.10.004
41.  Shahin, A. A., & Shaaban, H. A. (2022). Review on development system of traceability in dairy processing. Austin Journal of Nutrition and Metabolism, 9(1), 1122.
42.  Sharma, D., Singh, G., & Kaur, A. (2025). Blockchain-based layered architecture for traceability in dairy supply chain management. International Journal of Information Technology, 1–8. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41870-025-02554-5
43.  Shingh, S., Kamalvanshi, V., Ghimire, S., & Basyal, S. (2020). Dairy supply chain system based on blockchain technology. Asian Journal of Economics, Business and Accounting, 14(2), 13–19. https://doi.org/10.9734/ajeba/2020/v14i230189
44.  Shoaib, M., Lim, M. K., & Wang, C. (2020). An integrated framework to prioritize blockchain-based supply chain success factors. Industrial Management & Data Systems, 120(11), 2103–2131. https://doi.org/10.1108/IMDS-04-2020-0194
45.  Tan, A., & Ngan, P. T. (2020). A proposed framework model for dairy supply chain traceability. Sustainable Futures, 2, 100034. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sftr.2020.100034
46.  Theodouli, A., Arakliotis, S., Moschou, K., Votis, K., & Tzovaras, D. (2018). On the design of a blockchain-based system to facilitate healthcare data sharing. In 2018 IEEE International Conference on Trust, Security and Privacy in Computing and Communications (pp. 1374–1379). IEEE. https://doi.org/10.1109/TrustCom/BigDataSE.2018.00190
47.  Vasanthraj, V., Potdar, V., Agrawal, H., & Kaur, A. (2025). Transforming milk supply chains with blockchain: Enhancing visibility and cost reduction. Benchmarking: An International Journal, 32(5), 1686–1719. https://doi.org/10.1108/BIJ-10-2023-0702
48.  Vargas-Bello-Pérez, E., Sandoval, O. R. E., Rodríguez-Piñeros, S., & Ghavipanje, N. (2025). Blockchain and its future in the supply and value chains of the dairy industry. Journal of Dairy Research, 1–8. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022029925101076
49.  Wang, Y., Han, J. H., & Beynon-Davies, P. (2019). Understanding blockchain technology for future supply chains: A systematic literature review and research agenda. Supply Chain Management: An International Journal, 24(1), 62–84. https://doi.org/10.1108/SCM-03-2018-0148
50.  Zali, N., & Zamanipour, M. (2016). Presenting and implementing a new model for scenario building in regional planning: A case study of Mazandaran province. (In Persian)