Integrating DEMATEL and Scenario Planning Approaches to Explain the Future of Energy Imbalance in IRAN

Introduction: In recent years, the energy imbalance has been a significant issue in Iran, affecting all industries, the national economy, and public satisfaction. As a developing country, Iran should not neglect growth and development in the energy sector. Considering its potential, it should move towards resolving the energy imbalance. This research aims to explore the future of energy imbalance in Iran, employing DEMATEL and scenario planning approaches to provide a framework for a better understanding of the influential factors and the paths ahead.

Methods: This research takes a practical approach to examining the future of energy imbalance in Iran and is based on a pragmatic paradigm that emphasizes solving real problems and providing practical solutions. In terms of data collection, this research is descriptive-survey. The statistical population of this study includes university professors, senior managers, and prominent experts active in the Iranian energy industry who have sufficient knowledge and experience in this field. The research process begins with identifying primary drivers through the literature review, followed by determining the key drivers affecting the future of energy imbalance using the DEMATEL method. The DEMATEL method allows for identifying cause-and-effect relationships between different factors and determining the influence and receptiveness of each driver. After determining the key drivers, the analysis of the interactions of these drivers is performed using the specialized Scenario Wizard software. By analyzing the complex relationships between different factors, this software enables the development of plausible scenarios for the future of energy imbalance in Iran. Finally, based on the analyses, four distinct scenarios for the future of energy imbalance in Iran are extracted and described.

Results and discussion: The four main scenarios identified for the future of energy imbalance in Iran are:

Energy Spring: A favorable scenario with integrated governance, resilience against sanctions, optimized consumption, extensive regional cooperation, and investment in modern infrastructure leading to sustainable growth.

Energy Mirage: An apparent effort to improve with institutional disabilities, limited regional cooperation, and lack of investment leading to unsustainable results.

Energy Quagmire: A catastrophic situation resulting from structural weaknesses, crippling sanctions, inappropriate consumption patterns, regional tensions, and infrastructure crisis leading to the collapse of the energy industry.

Energy Winter: A critical situation caused by structural weaknesses, comprehensive sanctions, failure to change consumption patterns, insufficient regional cooperation, and infrastructure crisis due to lack of investment requiring fundamental rethinking.

These scenarios are developed based on the analysis of key drivers including “Energy Governance and Policy Structure”, “International Sanctions”, “Social Developments and Energy Consumption Pattern”, “Regional Cooperation” and “Energy Investment and Infrastructure”.

Conclusion: The research results show that the future of energy imbalance in Iran is highly dependent on integrated and efficient governance in the energy sector and the development of appropriate infrastructure. Critical scenarios such as “Energy Quagmire” and “Energy Winter” require immediate and serious interventions in national policy, while favorable scenarios such as “Energy Spring” provide valuable opportunities to resolve energy imbalance and sustainable development in the country. By providing a comprehensive analytical framework, this research helps policymakers and decision-makers to adopt more effective strategies to address the challenge of energy imbalance in Iran by identifying trends, uncertainties, and potential consequences. This research emphasizes that paying attention to the dynamics of the energy system, understanding the impact of key factors, and creating readiness to face different scenarios are necessary for successful management of energy imbalance in Iran.