Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1
Associate Professor, Faculty of Industrial and Technology Management, School of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
2
Professor, Faculty of Natural Resources, School of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
3
Ph.D., Faculty of Industrial and Technology Management, School of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
4
PhD student, Faculty of Industrial and Technology Management, School of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
Abstract
Introduction: Microfinance as a predominant poverty alleviation strategy with the aim of lifting poor out of poverty, provides financial services to poor. This research examines the effect of using micro loans on the growth of people's income and lifting them from poverty line. Also, with regard to the financial aid to MFI, changing in years of donate and its effect on lifting people from poverty line are discussed. In addition, the effect of marketing and increasing the probability of sales as a complementary service of microfinance, in the growth of income is investigated. Therefore, this research, examines the effect of microfinance on increase income and lifting poor from poverty by considering two policies changing the number of years of donate to MFI and increasing the probability of selling the product.
Methods: In MFIs, the way of providing resources, different conditions of lending, as well as the interactions between people, and become member of MFIs and influencing receipting of loans, creates a complex environment. The heterogeneous characteristics and behaviors as well as the interactions between agents in a dynamic environment, cause the emergence of complex events that using agent-based modeling approach can help to understand and model. agent-based modeling is a simulation approach of a set of autonomous, independent and decision-making agents that are interconnected and tries to investigate the final results of a system by modeling the behavior of individual elements. In this research, agent-based modeling approach has been used.
Results and discussion: The result shows the provision of microloans has increased people's income and provides the possibility of getting out of absolute poverty for most people. In this research, we considered the interest rate to be zero, the results showed the resorce of MFI based on savings and repayment of installments can increase, so that the number of paid loans even in the policy of 2 years donate increased. Therefore, by providing interest-free microloans and even limiting the duration of assistance, a sustainable microfinance MFI can be created. Also, the policy of changing the number of years of donate to MFI and increasing the number of years of donate from three years to four years does not have a significant effect on increasing people's income, and MFI will be able to continue based on savings and receiving repayment of installments, but increasing the number of years of donate will cause the number of loans so that by increasing years of donate to 2, 3 and 4, the number of loans paid is equal to 155, 221 and 278, respectively. Also, the results of modeling of increasing the probability of sale showed that in the scenario with the probability of 80% sales, the income of people and the number of people above the poverty line are much higher than the scenario of the probability of 60% sales. Totally, the modeling of the policies of changing the number of donate years to MFI and changing the probability of sales showed that more financial aid to MFI does not lead to more income of people and lifitin tehm from poverty line, but what causes more income is helping to marketing and sales product.
Conclusions: Reducing the number of donate years and using the released financial resources to create a market and increase the possibility of sales will make poverty alleviation policies more effective. In other words, if the financial resources of donate helps to create guaranteed markets or to form permanent markets, creates a greater leverage effect for increasing income of members than the increase the number of donate years to MFI.
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