ارائه مدل تحلیل ریسک‌ در پروژه‌‌های شهرسازی مبتنی بر تکنیک داده‌کاوی با مطالعه موردی

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 مربی، دانشگاه تربت حیدریه.

2 کارشناسی ارشد، دانشگاه صنعتی سجاد مشهد.

3 دانشیار، دانشگاه صنعتی شاهرود.

10.29252/jimp.10.2.137

چکیده

تحلیل واکنش درست به ریسک یکی از فرایندهای مهم مدیریت پروژه است. هدف از انجام این پژوهش، دسته‌بندی ریسک­‌های پروژه شهرسازی است. بدین‌منظور، پس از شناسایی ریسک‌­های پروژه شهرسازی، برای ارزیابی ریسک­‌ها مهم‌ترین شاخص‌های با تأیید خبرگان توسعه داده شده است که عبارت‌اند از: میزان تأثیر بر زمان؛ هزینه و کیفیت؛ احتمال وقوع؛ اثرات زیست‌محیطی؛ تأثیرات ایمنی؛ اهمیت ریسک؛ میزان مدیریت‌­پذیری ریسک و استراتژی پاسخ به ریسک؛ سپس ارزیابی ریسک‌ها با استفاده از شاخص‌های مدنظر انجام شد. تمامی مراحل تحلیل با استفاده از روش استاندارد داده‌کاوی کرسیپ اجرا و سطوح اهمیت ریسک، مدیریت‌پذیری ریسک و استراتژی پاسخ با استفاده از الگوریتم‌های داده‌کاوی پیشنهادی به تفکیک پیش‌بینی شدند. یافته‌‌های پژوهش نشان می‌دهند که الگوریتم‌های دسته‌بندی در مدیریت ریسک از عملکرد مطلوبی برخوردارند. الگوریتم دسته‌بندی لجستیک، میزان اهمیت و مدیریت‌پذیری ریسک را به‌­ترتیب با نرخ صحت 88/0 و 9/0 پیش‌بینی کرده ‌است؛ همچنین الگوریتم دسته‌بندی بیزی نیز در پیش‌بینی استراتژی پاسخ به ریسک توانسته است با نرخ صحت 84/0 عملکرد بهتری نسبت به سایر الگوریتم‌ها نشان دهد. برای بررسی بیشتر الگوریتم‌­های مورد­استفاده، نتایج با یکی از روش‌­های متداول، یعنی روش تاپسیس، مقایسه شد که  الگوریتم‌های داده‌کاوی در مقایسه با روش تاپسیس نتیجه بهتری ارایه دادند.

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