بهبود انتشار نوآوری از طریق تحلیل عملیاتی مدل‌سازی عامل‌بنیان

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه مدیریت صنعتی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.

2 استاد، گروه مدیریت صنعتی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.

3 استاد، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی.

10.29252/jimp.10.1.117

چکیده

هدف این پژوهش شناخت و معرفی روشی برای بهبود انتشار نوآوری با استفاده از مدل­سازی عامل‌بنیان می باشد. و در این رهگذر تحلیلی عملیاتی برای ایجاد مدل­‌سازی عامل­‌محور ارائه و بررسی گردید. مدل عامل­‌محور این پژوهش در ترکیب با مدل انتشار باس ایجاد شد. در این مدل ورودی­‌ها شامل احتمال پذیرش به‌­واسطه رسانه‌­های جمعی و احتمال پذیرش به­‌واسطه گفت­‌وگوهای کلامی است که با بهره‌­گیری از مدل انتشار باس تخمین زده شده‌­اند. خروجی مدل نیز تعداد کل پذیرندگان نوآوری در هر گام زمانی در بازار بالقوه است که پس از اجرای مدل، انطباق این داده‌ها با داده‌­های دنیای واقعی تأیید گردید. برای ساخت مدل از داده‌­های واقعی مربوط به انتشار نوآوری (انتشار تلویزیون) در ایران و برای توسعه مدل از ساختار شبکه­‌ای ترجیحی استفاده شد. پس از برپاسازی مدل، مباحث مربوط به اعتبارسنجی و اعتباربخشی آن با انجام آزمای‌ش­های مربوطه و براساس گام‌­های ارائه‌­شده در تحلیل عملیاتی مدل­سازی عامل‌­بنیان لحاظ گردید و روشی که برای بهبود انتشار نوآوری معرفی شده است در قالب 10 سناریو موردبررسی و آزمون قرار گرفت. پس از تحلیل خروجی­‌های این سناریوها، روش پیشنهادی در بهبود انتشار نوآوری، به‌­ویژه برای غلبه بر تأخیر اولیه در پذیرش نوآوری مؤثر تشخیص داده شد.  

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